TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Vesecky vs Martin Cerny 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111311711711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Martin Cerny at 59.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 54–76 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 54 of their 130 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:5459.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
54-76 in 130
Cerny
Correct
gap of 22 in 130, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1608 vs Cerny 1806
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 20% vs Cerny 40%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 30% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky -1 · Cerny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.10 / Cerny 1.666
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Cerny)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224996
Vesecky2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 58 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Cerny1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 167 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it97% 83 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it85% 120 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky1wins
AwayCerny9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky0%0 of 4
AwayCerny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Vesecky5Cerny2n = 7Vesecky took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky0Cerny5n = 5Cerny took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.242.1−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 635 vs 503 / 86654.8%58.1%348 / 635 vs 503 / 866Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 2.10/Cerny 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 07:25D. Vesecky461141110102M. Cerny48511812123
LSep 23 · 18:35D. Vesecky4211761172M. Cerny45411118113
LSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky3784111132M. Cerny49111188113
LSep 23 · 11:25D. Vesecky206950M. Cerny331111113
LSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky29118551M. Cerny4291111113
LSep 7 · 12:25D. Vesecky144460M. Cerny331111113
WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky4291111113M. Cerny30118381
LSep 2 · 11:25D. Vesecky46111141282M. Cerny541391110113
LAug 31 · 14:45D. Vesecky175750M. Cerny331111113
LAug 31 · 10:55D. Vesecky49111461352M. Cerny545161111113
D. Vesecky10
LSep 25 · 09:58J. Kocab1.331111104113D. Vesecky3.2598121192WSep 25 · 09:25D. Vesecky2.0011911113O. Kadavy1.73811491LSep 25 · 07:55J. Kocab1.3311136113D. Vesecky3.254111161LSep 25 · 07:25M. Cerny1.44511812123D. Vesecky2.631141110102LSep 23 · 18:35D. Vesecky2.1011761172M. Cerny1.65411118113WSep 23 · 16:55D. Vesecky2.3891211113D. Bochnak1.531110391WSep 23 · 15:55D. Vesecky1.7311112113L. Soucek2.00281181LSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113LSep 23 · 14:02P. Benes1.33111116113D. Vesecky3.25761891LSep 23 · 13:25D. Vesecky1.574450P. Benes2.251111113
M. Cerny10
LSep 28 · 13:55M. Cerny1.73951181P. Vanek2.0011118113LSep 28 · 13:25M. Cerny2.756490O. Kadavy1.401111113WSep 28 · 11:55D. Bochnak1.8311119792M. Cerny1.83761111113WSep 28 · 11:25P. Vanek1.7311311972M. Cerny2.00911811113LSep 27 · 14:43M. Cerny1.83611741V. Benak1.8711711113WSep 27 · 12:55M. Cerny3.0011811113O. Kadavy1.36811841WSep 27 · 11:55M. Cerny1.91119116113F. Strejc1.8061161172WSep 25 · 07:25M. Cerny1.44511812123D. Vesecky2.631141110102WSep 23 · 18:35D. Vesecky2.1011761172M. Cerny1.65411118113WSep 23 · 14:55D. Vesecky2.1084111132M. Cerny1.67111188113
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