TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matej Svitac vs Leon Kolman 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7118111210511––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Matej Svitac at 56.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 19–14 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3956.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1619 vs Kolman 1570
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 60% vs Kolman 40%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 70% vs Kolman 40%
Svitac
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac -1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.666 / Kolman 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Svitac)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223908
Svitac1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 67 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Kolman2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 64 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvitac5wins
AwayKolman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac100%4 of 4
AwayKolman83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Svitac6Kolman4n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S3Svitac5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S4Svitac5Kolman3n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Svitac1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvitacKolmanS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.1+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 392 vs 363 / 69555.1%52.2%216 / 392 vs 363 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.67/Kolman 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac31911110L. Kolman371113133
WSep 19 · 20:00M. Svitac481112410113L. Kolman44710111242
LSep 10 · 12:48M. Svitac30761161L. Kolman4011117113
WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac331111113L. Kolman189540
WSep 8 · 10:45M. Svitac4181111113L. Kolman36119791
LSep 7 · 09:30M. Svitac53913111192L. Kolman51111595113
LSep 6 · 17:45M. Svitac3864111252L. Kolman491111610113
LSep 1 · 13:15M. Svitac367111351L. Kolman4511815113
WAug 15 · 11:45M. Svitac48141211113L. Kolman4312101381
WAug 13 · 11:45M. Svitac4111118113L. Kolman28781121
M. Svitac10
LOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113WSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141WSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik1.83591171M. Svitac1.8311119113LSep 25 · 09:30Z. Kuksa3.25811115113M. Svitac1.3311791182LSep 23 · 12:48V. Lopata2.2011115113M. Svitac1.61941181WSep 23 · 11:15T. Hybl2.2011101011102M. Svitac1.61712127123WSep 23 · 10:45M. Svitac1.6111149113V. Lopata2.208121161WSep 23 · 09:45M. Svitac1.91131112113L. Smazik1.801551051WSep 21 · 12:58M. Svitac1.5711811113T. Hrstka2.25711951
L. Kolman10
LOct 1 · 09:15J. Simek1.9111101213113L. Kolman1.80612101552WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100
Upcoming Matches
M. Svitac
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L. Kolman
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