TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Illia Fokin vs Oleksandr Bolnyh 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131181513––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 61 set 3, 15-13 · our read held Illia Fokin at 77.8%
61 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 2–0 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1977.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 2.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1037 vs Bolnyh 791
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 246 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 40% vs Bolnyh 60%
Bolnyh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 30% vs Bolnyh 70%
Bolnyh
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -1 · Bolnyh +3
Bolnyh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.25 / Bolnyh 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Fokin)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223680
Fokin1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 24) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 60 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Bolnyh3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 19) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 35 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFokin2wins
AwayBolnyh0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderFokin leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricFokinBolnyhF − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.543.0+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 292 vs 89 / 19751%45.2%149 / 292 vs 89 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.25/Bolnyh 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin46611117113O. Bolnyh4711971192
WSep 9 · 18:25I. Fokin4312119113O. Bolnyh391091191
I. Fokin10
LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113LSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100WSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113LSep 23 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91101711113I. Fokin1.801215991LSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.80661111113I. Fokin1.9111118962LSep 23 · 13:55M. Treschetka1.501111113I. Fokin2.508790LSep 23 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.831118113I. Fokin1.8371620
O. Bolnyh10
LOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101WSep 19 · 11:25V. Sydorchuk2.00814971O. Bolnyh1.73111211113WSep 19 · 09:55O. Bolnyh1.171111113M. Kornijchuk4.505390WSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk3.005149101O. Bolnyh1.36111211123LSep 19 · 05:55P. Chyzh1.28115116123O. Bolnyh3.50711411102LSep 19 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.331081111113O. Bolnyh3.2512118632LSep 18 · 18:55O. Bolnyh2.7566100P. Chyzh1.401111123WSep 18 · 16:55V. Moroz4.00115471O. Bolnyh1.2261111113WSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk3.0089100O. Bolnyh1.361111123WSep 18 · 13:55O. Bolnyh1.73128412113V. Sydorchuk2.001011111042
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