TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Pavlik vs Jan Simecek Jnr 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116511117115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:46 and never touched: 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJan Simecek Jnr to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jan Simecek Jnr @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Jan Simecek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 67 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jan Simecek Jnr at 57.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 12–16 Jan Simecek Jnr Adam Pavlik has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:4657.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 0.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Jnr
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1551 vs Jnr 1600
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 20% vs Jnr 40%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 50% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -4 · Jnr -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Jnr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.00 / Jnr 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jnr)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13223546
Pavlik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 38 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Jnr1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik3wins
AwayJnr7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik33.3%1 of 3
AwayJnr71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S2Pavlik3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S3Pavlik6Jnr4n = 10Pavlik took 6 of 10
S4Pavlik3Jnr4n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S5Pavlik1Jnr2n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikJnrP − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.939.4−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 321 vs 217 / 41450.8%52.4%163 / 321 vs 217 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JnrPavlik 2.00/Jnr 1.73
Miss
What we said
57.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jan Simecek Jnr @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 18:45A. Pavlik331111113J. Jnr249960
WAug 4 · 17:45A. Pavlik51991111113J. Jnr4411117962
LApr 29 · 19:00A. Pavlik218760J. Jnr331111113
LMar 18 · 21:58A. Pavlik33117781J. Jnr4181111113
LMar 18 · 18:30A. Pavlik33711961J. Jnr3911611113
LMar 1 · 08:00A. Pavlik4496111172J. Jnr49111197113
LFeb 16 · 18:30A. Pavlik238870J. Jnr331111113
LJan 18 · 06:30A. Pavlik39991651J. Jnr47111114113
LDec 21 · 07:30A. Pavlik49118119102J. Jnr51911811123
WDec 4 · 21:00A. Pavlik43101111113J. Jnr33127861
A. Pavlik10
WOct 1 · 19:15L. Stoces1.9111711872A. Pavlik1.80611811113LOct 1 · 17:45A. Pavlik2.5010111051M. Hajek1.5012812113LSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141
J. Jnr10
LOct 1 · 17:15L. Stoces1.6711118113J. Jnr2.10891191LSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123LSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141WSep 23 · 18:45J. Jnr1.531111113P. Hala2.386950WSep 23 · 17:45J. Jnr2.00111197123D. Brichacek1.73861111102LSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 08:00J. Jnr1.91111110432D. Brichacek1.80881211113LSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851WSep 19 · 06:00P. Orlowski1.911091214152J. Jnr1.8012111012173WSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120
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