TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Karel vs Tomas Bartik 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Tomas Bartik at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 10–17 Tomas Bartik Filip Karel has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1723 vs Bartik 1717
Karel
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 20% vs Bartik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 30% vs Bartik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -2 · Bartik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Bartik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.833 / Bartik 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bartik)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13221670
Karel1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Bartik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarel4wins
AwayBartik6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel100%3 of 3
AwayBartik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel3Bartik7n = 10Bartik took 7 of 10
S2Karel4Bartik6n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S3Karel6Bartik4n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S4Karel2Bartik4n = 6Bartik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelBartikK − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.535.7−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 194 vs 188 / 32255.7%58.4%108 / 194 vs 188 / 322Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartikKarel 1.83/Bartik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 12:05F. Karel27116100T. Bartik361311123
LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel33911761T. Bartik3911611113
WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel4413911113T. Bartik371111781
LAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel307101121T. Bartik4111127113
WAug 22 · 20:05F. Karel331111113T. Bartik218670
WAug 22 · 17:43F. Karel45411811113T. Bartik4311811942
LAug 22 · 16:05F. Karel34591191T. Bartik3711114113
LAug 18 · 21:45F. Karel34981161T. Bartik4111118113
WAug 18 · 19:05F. Karel401111183T. Bartik2958160
LAug 9 · 13:38F. Karel155460T. Bartik331111113
F. Karel10
LSep 30 · 15:05F. Karel1.80712391M. Mastera1.91111011113LSep 30 · 14:05F. Karel1.50116791T. Beran2.5071111113WSep 18 · 13:04J. Ruzicka2.5091090F. Karel1.501112113LSep 18 · 12:05T. Bartik1.731311123F. Karel2.00116100LSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:35F. Karel1.6711117113J. Ruzicka2.10551141WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113
T. Bartik10
LSep 30 · 15:35T. Beran2.501181111113T. Bartik1.5081113862LSep 30 · 14:35T. Bartik1.67119781M. Mastera2.1071111113LSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:05T. Bartik1.731311123F. Karel2.00116100LSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113WSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102LSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113
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