TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Pohorilyi vs Roman Hryhoriev 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11611861113151012
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Roman Hryhoriev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 103 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 70.7%
103 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 19–10 Roman Hryhoriev Roman Hryhoriev has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5070.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-10 in 29
Pohorilyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1509 vs Hryhoriev 1383
Pohorilyi
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Hryhoriev 40%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 50% vs Hryhoriev 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +3 · Hryhoriev -1
Pohorilyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Pohorilyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohorilyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.40 / Hryhoriev 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Pohorilyi)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13218959
Pohorilyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 24)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 132 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it86% 103 of 120
Hryhoriev2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog23% won 8 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi8wins
AwayHryhoriev2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi87.5%7 of 8
AwayHryhorievn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi8Hryhoriev2n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S2Pohorilyi6Hryhoriev4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S3Pohorilyi6Hryhoriev4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S4Pohorilyi4Hryhoriev3n = 7Pohorilyi took 4 of 7
S5Pohorilyi3Hryhoriev1n = 4Pohorilyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiHryhorievP − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.334.6+6.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiHryhorievBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 634 vs 108 / 22958.2%47.2%369 / 634 vs 108 / 229Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.40/Hryhoriev 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hryhoriev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi351111133R. Hryhoriev2449110
WSep 10 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi481110511113R. Hryhoriev4121211882
WSep 1 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi351113113R. Hryhoriev2571170
WAug 17 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3911611113R. Hryhoriev34811781
LJul 22 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi33119491R. Hryhoriev3851111113
WJul 13 · 17:38M. Pohorilyi46114128113R. Hryhoriev42311101172
WJul 13 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi331111113R. Hryhoriev123360
LJul 8 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi49911101182R. Hryhoriev47118125113
WJun 25 · 17:04M. Pohorilyi46411118123R. Hryhoriev44119311102
WJun 25 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi4911119183R. Hryhoriev398411161
M. Pohorilyi10
WSep 30 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.2511911113P. Kolesnik1.33911491WSep 24 · 10:38S. Honcharenko3.4061211682M. Pohorilyi1.301110911113WSep 24 · 09:30I. Sorochan2.75128781M. Pohorilyi1.40101111113WSep 24 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.44811111113S. Sideltsev2.6311113992LSep 24 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.20116101172S. Honcharenko4.33911124113LSep 24 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.3614514972M. Zavoloka3.0012111211113LSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi1.73811681M. Zavoloka2.0011811113LSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk2.3891111113M. Pohorilyi1.53118881
R. Hryhoriev10
LSep 30 · 14:30I. Dubinin1.73101111113R. Hryhoriev2.00126861LSep 30 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.501171011113R. Hryhoriev2.5061112882WSep 17 · 17:13R. Hryhoriev1.73111111113I. Dubinin2.00881331LSep 17 · 16:00R. Hryhoriev3.757440P. Shulhachyk1.251111113WSep 17 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.7351151192R. Hryhoriev2.00118116113LSep 17 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111133R. Hryhoriev2.6349110WSep 17 · 12:30N. Priadko2.1017101161R. Hryhoriev1.6719126113WSep 10 · 17:10R. Hryhoriev1.85971116113I. Dubinin1.85111171492LSep 10 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.441110511113R. Hryhoriev2.6321211882LSep 10 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.00661181V. Simchuk1.7311115113
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