TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Sideltsev vs Roman Hryhoriev 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1167111012118118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched: 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeSergii Sideltsev to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Sideltsev above · Roman Hryhoriev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Sergii Sideltsev at 62.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Sideltsev 3–7 Roman Hryhoriev Sergii Sideltsev has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5062.6%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.1pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sideltsev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Hryhoriev
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sideltsev 1480 vs Hryhoriev 1391
Sideltsev
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sideltsev 60% vs Hryhoriev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sideltsev 60% vs Hryhoriev 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sideltsev +1 · Hryhoriev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Sideltsev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hryhoriev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSideltsev 1.50 / Hryhoriev 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Sideltsev)-4.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218847
Sideltsev1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 98 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it100% 69 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it90% 82 of 91
Hryhoriev2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 17) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 8 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSideltsev3wins
AwayHryhoriev7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHryhoriev leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSideltsevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHryhoriev75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sideltsev2Hryhoriev8n = 10Hryhoriev took 8 of 10
S2Sideltsev4Hryhoriev6n = 10Hryhoriev took 6 of 10
S3Sideltsev3Hryhoriev7n = 10Hryhoriev took 7 of 10
S4Sideltsev5Hryhoriev1n = 6Sideltsev took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSideltsevHryhorievS − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.737.1−4.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSideltsevHryhorievBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 434 vs 124 / 25858.5%48.1%254 / 434 vs 124 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SideltsevSideltsev 1.50/Hryhoriev 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.6%
Sideltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sideltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 3 · 17:03S. Sideltsev4111118113R. Hryhoriev27951121
WSep 3 · 16:00S. Sideltsev46111113113R. Hryhoriev421391191
LFeb 5 · 16:00S. Sideltsev177640R. Hryhoriev331111113
LNov 3 · 14:00S. Sideltsev4185121152R. Hryhoriev511111108113
WSep 5 · 12:00S. Sideltsev4281112113R. Hryhoriev351181061
LSep 2 · 12:00S. Sideltsev218580R. Hryhoriev331111113
LSep 1 · 17:40S. Sideltsev2791080R. Hryhoriev341112113
LSep 1 · 14:00S. Sideltsev1911260R. Hryhoriev351311113
LAug 27 · 15:00S. Sideltsev401199111R. Hryhoriev4491111133
S. Sideltsev10
WSep 28 · 16:58Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011112101S. Sideltsev1.3651114123LSep 28 · 16:30I. Dubinin1.731111123S. Sideltsev2.0079100WSep 28 · 15:00S. Sideltsev1.401416113Y. Zvolynskyi2.75121480WSep 28 · 13:30S. Sideltsev1.33913911113I. Sorochan3.25111111732LSep 28 · 12:00S. Sideltsev1.506111091V. Simchuk2.5011912113WSep 24 · 10:08S. Sideltsev1.441311113I. Sorochan2.6311470WSep 24 · 09:00S. Sideltsev1.5711911113M. Zavoloka2.25111951LSep 24 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.44811111113S. Sideltsev2.6311113992LSep 24 · 07:00I. Sorochan3.4071111133S. Sideltsev1.301197111WSep 24 · 05:30S. Honcharenko4.00511711122S. Sideltsev1.22118116143
R. Hryhoriev10
WSep 30 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.401111613102R. Hryhoriev2.75681115123WSep 17 · 17:13R. Hryhoriev1.73111111113I. Dubinin2.00881331LSep 17 · 16:00R. Hryhoriev3.757440P. Shulhachyk1.251111113WSep 17 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.7351151192R. Hryhoriev2.00118116113LSep 17 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111133R. Hryhoriev2.6349110WSep 17 · 12:30N. Priadko2.1017101161R. Hryhoriev1.6719126113WSep 10 · 17:10R. Hryhoriev1.85971116113I. Dubinin1.85111171492LSep 10 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.441110511113R. Hryhoriev2.6321211882LSep 10 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.00661181V. Simchuk1.7311115113WSep 10 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.801441361R. Hryhoriev1.91121115113
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