TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Jirka vs Daniel Zelezny 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171151012118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Daniel Zelezny at 58.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 4–3 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zelezny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1524 vs Zelezny 1568
Zelezny
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 20% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 30% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka -2 · Zelezny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Zelezny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 2.10 / Zelezny 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Zelezny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13215757
Jirka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 16 days ago (Sep 13) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 17 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Zelezny1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 29 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 17 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJirka4wins
AwayZelezny3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderJirka leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka80%4 of 5
AwayZeleznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka5Zelezny2n = 7Jirka took 5 of 7
S2Jirka3Zelezny4n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S3Jirka3Zelezny4n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S4Jirka3Zelezny4n = 7Zelezny took 4 of 7
S5Jirka2Zelezny1n = 3Jirka took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricJirkaZeleznyJ − ZBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match41.138.3+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 185 vs 114 / 21650.8%52.8%94 / 185 vs 114 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyJirka 2.10/Zelezny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.6%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 29 · 14:50L. Jirka43111110113D. Zelezny32751281
LSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka29118641D. Zelezny4181111113
WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka45111156123D. Zelezny45671111102
LMay 24 · 15:25L. Jirka376911111D. Zelezny3811113133
WOct 27 · 19:45L. Jirka50119811113D. Zelezny4291111562
LOct 27 · 16:55L. Jirka4471111782D. Zelezny46115811113
WMar 27 · 20:50L. Jirka4011711113D. Zelezny24611611
L. Jirka10
LSep 29 · 16:20A. Krcil1.8091111113L. Jirka1.91118681WSep 29 · 15:50A. Brandtl Jr2.1093100L. Jirka1.671111123LSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113LSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113LSep 8 · 21:20L. Jirka1.80851191B. Budik1.9111118113LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101LSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852
D. Zelezny10
WSep 29 · 16:50D. Zelezny1.361111113A. Brandtl Jr3.008470WSep 29 · 15:20A. Krcil1.8310790D. Zelezny1.831211113WSep 22 · 17:30D. Zelezny1.44811811113T. Rein2.6311711982LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 15:50T. Rein2.63614811112D. Zelezny1.441112119133WSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113WSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113LSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102
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