TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Nemec vs Filip Musil 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114117119––––
Filip Musil
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:17 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeFilip Musil to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Filip Musil below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 53 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Filip Musil at 64.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 19–48 Filip Musil Michal Nemec has won 19 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Musil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-48 in 67
Musil
Wrong
gap of 29 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1363 vs Musil 1470
Musil
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 60% vs Musil 80%
Musil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 60% vs Musil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -1 · Musil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Musil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Musil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.50 / Musil 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Musil)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13210318
Nemec2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 84 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 84
Musil1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 20 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec3wins
AwayMusil7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMusil leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec50%3 of 6
AwayMusil100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec6Musil4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S2Nemec3Musil7n = 10Musil took 7 of 10
S3Nemec6Musil4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S4Nemec1Musil6n = 7Musil took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecMusilN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.838.2−4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecMusilBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 760 vs 95 / 17847.5%53.4%361 / 760 vs 95 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MusilNemec 2.50/Musil 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Musil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 12:50M. Nemec44115141042F. Musil537111212113
LMay 11 · 14:20M. Nemec33814561F. Musil45111211113
LMay 10 · 10:00M. Nemec34961181F. Musil4111118113
LMay 10 · 06:20M. Nemec30761161F. Musil4111118113
WApr 22 · 15:50M. Nemec4211711133F. Musil399118111
WApr 17 · 17:55M. Nemec331111113F. Musil188280
LApr 17 · 14:50M. Nemec168350F. Musil331111113
WApr 6 · 13:55M. Nemec351112123F. Musil29910100
LApr 6 · 12:50M. Nemec401181381F. Musil4361115113
LApr 1 · 14:00M. Nemec311111541F. Musil4051311113
M. Nemec10
LSep 28 · 15:20M. Nemec3.0045111172R. Zeman1.36111175113WSep 28 · 14:20M. Nemec2.6311118133M. Zajicek1.446511111WSep 27 · 13:20J. Brynych2.05911511102M. Nemec1.68117118123LSep 27 · 12:20M. Nemec1.6110880J. Brynych2.201211113WSep 27 · 11:20M. Nemec2.25111119113O. Hula1.5793111162LSep 27 · 10:20M. Nemec3.005550R. Zeman1.361111113WSep 24 · 21:58R. Zeman1.36811119132M. Nemec3.00119911153LSep 24 · 20:50M. Nemec3.001013691R. Zeman1.36121111113WSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113WSep 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.206990M. Nemec1.611111113
F. Musil10
LSep 28 · 15:50M. Zajicek1.801061111113F. Musil1.9112117722WSep 28 · 14:50F. Musil1.73115811113R. Zeman2.0051111882WAug 28 · 13:55F. Musil1.6512912113J. Rolik2.1010111081WAug 28 · 12:50F. Musil1.61412116113J. Rolik2.20111051192WAug 28 · 11:20O. Sebek2.256870F. Musil1.571111113WAug 28 · 10:50J. Brynych2.20711111162F. Musil1.61111348113LAug 24 · 13:28J. Rolik2.00913911113F. Musil1.73111111982WAug 24 · 12:50F. Musil1.447111212113M. Nemec2.63115141042LAug 24 · 11:20J. Rolik2.25911149113F. Musil1.57115121192LAug 24 · 10:50O. Sebek2.20111167113F. Musil1.6166111182
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