TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Nemec vs Ondrej Hula 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119113111911116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeOndrej Hula to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Ondrej Hula below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 83 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Hula at 55.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Michal Nemec 6–3 Ondrej Hula Ondrej Hula has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hula
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Nemec
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nemec 1353 vs Hula 1503
Hula
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nemec 60% vs Hula 80%
Hula
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nemec 50% vs Hula 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nemec -1 · Hula +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hula) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hula form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 2.25 / Hula 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hula)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13203547
Nemec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 83 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back16% 23 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 85
Hula1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 15 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNemec6wins
AwayHula3wins
6 of 9 to a deciderNemec leads 6–3, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec66.7%4 of 6
AwayHula33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec6Hula3n = 9Nemec took 6 of 9
S2Nemec8Hula1n = 9Nemec took 8 of 9
S3Nemec5Hula4n = 9Nemec took 5 of 9
S4Nemec2Hula5n = 7Hula took 5 of 7
S5Nemec3Hula3n = 6split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricNemecHulaN − HBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match45.440.6+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecHulaBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 759 vs 41 / 8147.4%50.6%360 / 759 vs 41 / 81Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HulaNemec 2.25/Hula 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Hula · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 27 · 11:20M. Nemec43111119113O. Hula4093111162
LJul 13 · 12:55M. Nemec48121111952O. Hula46143711113
WJul 11 · 21:25M. Nemec531112109113O. Hula45810121142
LJul 4 · 18:00M. Nemec4511117792O. Hula49971111113
WJul 4 · 15:55M. Nemec44101111123O. Hula371287101
WApr 17 · 15:20M. Nemec331111113O. Hula208750
LMar 29 · 14:05M. Nemec571611119102O. Hula581413811123
WMar 29 · 12:55M. Nemec331111113O. Hula217680
WJan 24 · 16:55M. Nemec539111111113O. Hula4911913882
M. Nemec10
LSep 27 · 12:20M. Nemec1.6110880J. Brynych2.201211113LSep 27 · 10:20M. Nemec3.005550R. Zeman1.361111113WSep 24 · 21:58R. Zeman1.36811119132M. Nemec3.00119911153LSep 24 · 20:50M. Nemec3.001013691R. Zeman1.36121111113WSep 24 · 19:20M. Dlask1.83711991M. Nemec1.8311911113WSep 24 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.206990M. Nemec1.611111113LSep 23 · 21:28M. Nemec1.831110811112M. Dlask1.83712115133LSep 23 · 20:20M. Dlask1.73520113113M. Nemec2.00111891192LSep 23 · 19:50L. Vich1.4411116133M. Nemec2.638811111WSep 23 · 18:50M. Nemec2.5061112113Z. Vyskocil1.501181051
O. Hula10
WSep 27 · 10:50J. Brynych3.50912111112O. Hula1.281110115133WSep 26 · 18:34O. Hula1.671111113P. Cibik2.107690LSep 26 · 17:25O. Hula1.571011118102S. Matousch2.25125911123WSep 26 · 15:55P. Cibik1.80981113102O. Hula1.911111511123WSep 26 · 15:25R. Zeman2.0010118111O. Hula1.7312811133WSep 24 · 22:00A. Krcil1.3641111992O. Hula3.00118411113LSep 24 · 21:25O. Hula1.737131091M. Juhasz2.00111112113LSep 24 · 19:55A. Krcil1.671111123O. Hula2.1073100LSep 24 · 19:25P. Cibik1.91137119113O. Hula1.80111151192LSep 12 · 18:29O. Hula1.67119891P. Cibik2.1061111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Nemec
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O. Hula
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