TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Vich vs Michal Nemec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Lukas Vich
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181186111311––
Michal Nemec
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:42 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Vich above · Michal Nemec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Lukas Vich at 68.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Vich 5–1 Michal Nemec Michal Nemec has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Vich
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vich 1551 vs Nemec 1341
Vich
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vich 80% vs Nemec 60%
Vich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vich 60% vs Nemec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vich +4 · Nemec +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Vich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nemec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVich 1.44 / Nemec 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Vich)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13182764
Vich1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 34 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it65% 20 of 31
Nemec2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 82 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVich5wins
AwayNemec1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderVich leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVich75%3 of 4
AwayNemecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vich4Nemec2n = 6Vich took 4 of 6
S2Vich4Nemec2n = 6Vich took 4 of 6
S3Vich3Nemec3n = 6split evenly
S4Vich3Nemec2n = 5Vich took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVichNemecV − NBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.233.8+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVichNemecBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 518 vs 359 / 75547.3%47.6%245 / 518 vs 359 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VichVich 1.44/Nemec 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 23 · 19:50L. Vich4111116133M. Nemec388811111
WAug 21 · 18:20L. Vich331111113M. Nemec174850
WAug 20 · 18:20L. Vich3741111113M. Nemec32118941
WAug 12 · 19:20L. Vich47811116113M. Nemec4211661182
WJul 29 · 20:50L. Vich41114411113M. Nemec3971111732
LApr 13 · 20:25L. Vich361111771M. Nemec3501311113
L. Vich10
WSep 23 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.80117511102L. Vich1.91811116123WSep 23 · 18:20M. Dlask3.25841171L. Vich1.3311119113WSep 22 · 21:30L. Vich2.051111113T. Barsa1.687970WSep 22 · 20:20L. Vich1.83711411123P. Cibik1.83117113102WSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich2.38711611113T. Barsa1.5311511372LSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113WSep 20 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.8510850L. Vich1.851211113LSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113LSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113LSep 20 · 18:20L. Vich2.007180Z. Vyskocil1.731111113
M. Nemec10
LSep 23 · 20:20M. Dlask1.73520113113M. Nemec2.00111891192WSep 23 · 18:50M. Nemec2.5061112113Z. Vyskocil1.501181051WSep 20 · 09:25M. Nemec1.301013911113O. Sebek3.40121111872WSep 20 · 08:50O. Sebek2.3510119121M. Nemec1.5312611143LSep 20 · 07:50M. Nemec1.83511145132L. Pour1.831181211153LSep 20 · 06:20R. Zeman1.41131111113M. Nemec2.60155381WSep 18 · 17:25M. Nemec1.91911911153M. Kolbusovsky1.80118112132LSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110LSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113WSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123
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