TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Vich vs Tomas Barsa 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Lukas Vich
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119117––––
Tomas Barsa
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Vich above · Tomas Barsa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Vich at 64.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Vich 14–11 Tomas Barsa Tomas Barsa has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vich beat Barsa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Barsa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Vich
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vich 1536 vs Barsa 1476
Vich
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vich 60% vs Barsa 0%
Vich
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vich 50% vs Barsa 30%
Vich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vich +2 · Barsa -5
Barsa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Barsa) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barsa form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVich 2.05 / Barsa 1.68
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vich)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #13180612
Vich2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 56 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back29% 24 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Barsa1.68
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 64 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it68% 43 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVich6wins
AwayBarsa4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVich leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVich100%3 of 3
AwayBarsa57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vich3Barsa7n = 10Barsa took 7 of 10
S2Vich5Barsa5n = 10split evenly
S3Vich4Barsa6n = 10Barsa took 6 of 10
S4Vich4Barsa2n = 6Vich took 4 of 6
S5Vich3Barsa0n = 3Vich took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVichBarsaV − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.0−0.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVichBarsaBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 517 vs 97 / 17746.8%54.8%242 / 517 vs 97 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BarsaVich 2.05/Barsa 1.68
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Barsa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich46711611113T. Barsa3711511372
LSep 2 · 18:55L. Vich165380T. Barsa331111113
WAug 11 · 21:50L. Vich3841111123T. Barsa351186101
LAug 11 · 18:50L. Vich2349100T. Barsa341111123
WAug 6 · 19:55L. Vich4414154113T. Barsa4312131171
LJul 31 · 20:25L. Vich32961161T. Barsa4011117113
WJul 17 · 21:35L. Vich331111113T. Barsa164660
WJul 17 · 20:50L. Vich531610115113T. Barsa45141231152
WJun 26 · 19:55L. Vich46413711113T. Barsa44111111742
LJun 16 · 22:35L. Vich236980T. Barsa331111113
L. Vich10
WSep 22 · 20:20L. Vich1.83711411123P. Cibik1.83117113102WSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich2.38711611113T. Barsa1.5311511372LSep 22 · 18:20L. Vich1.83118861T. Jr1.8371111113WSep 20 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil1.8510850L. Vich1.851211113LSep 20 · 20:20L. Vich2.5091111882P. Cibik1.50118611113LSep 20 · 19:20L. Vich1.807760T. Jr1.911111113LSep 20 · 18:20L. Vich2.007180Z. Vyskocil1.731111113WSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch1.9013871182L. Vich1.801111117113WSep 14 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.73111031182L. Vich2.00912117113LSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113
T. Barsa10
LSep 22 · 20:50T. Barsa1.7311991182T. Jr2.00311118113LSep 22 · 19:20L. Vich2.38711611113T. Barsa1.5311511372LSep 22 · 18:50P. Cibik2.50912811113T. Barsa1.50111011972LSep 16 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil2.2012116113T. Barsa1.601081181LSep 16 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.25811611113T. Barsa1.5711911982WSep 16 · 19:50T. Barsa1.50121014113P. Cibik2.5010121291WSep 16 · 18:20S. Matousch2.7513137462T. Barsa1.4011111111113LSep 10 · 22:05T. Barsa1.73105111232Z. Vyskocil2.001211310113WSep 10 · 21:25Z. Vyskocil2.38127111162T. Barsa1.53141154113LSep 10 · 20:25T. Barsa1.57211151M. Juhasz2.2511611113
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