TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Lukas Provaznik 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8117111012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 4–8 Lukas Provaznik Leon Kolman has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:39What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1571 vs Provaznik 1596
Provaznik
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 20% vs Provaznik 40%
Provaznik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 40% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -2 · Provaznik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.91 / Provaznik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Provaznik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13202776
Kolman1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Provaznik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 35 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman4wins
AwayProvaznik6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman60%3 of 5
AwayProvaznik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman3Provaznik7n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S3Kolman5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolman6Provaznik3n = 9Kolman took 6 of 9
S5Kolman2Provaznik4n = 6Provaznik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanProvaznikK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.143.8−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 694 vs 148 / 30752.2%48.2%362 / 694 vs 148 / 307Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikKolman 1.91/Provaznik 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman2587100L. Provaznik341111123
WSep 20 · 13:30L. Kolman50117119123L. Provaznik44511711102
LSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman4551181382L. Provaznik501161111113
WSep 16 · 17:30L. Kolman3811114123L. Provaznik389811101
LSep 13 · 05:30L. Kolman33114991L. Provaznik4181111113
WSep 2 · 14:45L. Kolman3411111113L. Provaznik29511851
LAug 31 · 14:00L. Kolman40102111162L. Provaznik47121158113
WJul 25 · 05:15L. Kolman541171112133L. Provaznik541311910112
LJul 1 · 15:45L. Kolman3913411742L. Provaznik531111911113
LApr 6 · 18:30L. Kolman43111161142L. Provaznik48136117113
L. Kolman10
LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113
L. Provaznik10
LSep 27 · 07:00M. Hajek1.5711117113L. Provaznik2.25641171WSep 27 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.53491191L. Provaznik2.3811113113LSep 23 · 15:30P. Semrad1.7331111113L. Provaznik2.00119581WSep 23 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.258111211113M. Hajek1.57119101352LSep 23 · 14:00L. Provaznik2.251414100D. Marasek1.571616123LSep 20 · 16:29P. Hala1.8011211113L. Provaznik1.91711661WSep 20 · 15:30L. Provaznik1.9131115113P. Hala1.801141361LSep 20 · 14:30L. Provaznik2.3841111662M. Hajek1.53119411113LSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123WSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113
Upcoming Matches
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