TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Lukas Provaznik vs Dominik Marasek 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
141614161012––––
Dominik Marasek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeDominik Marasek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 82 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Dominik Marasek at 62.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 15–26 Dominik Marasek Lukas Provaznik has won 15 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Marasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-26 in 41
Marasek
Correct
gap of 11 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1581 vs Marasek 1689
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Marasek 60%
Marasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Marasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Marasek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Marasek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.25 / Marasek 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Marasek)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13180251
Provaznik2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Marasek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 31 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it83% 25 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik3wins
AwayMarasek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMarasek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayMarasek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Marasek6n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik7Marasek3n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S3Provaznik1Marasek9n = 10Marasek took 9 of 10
S4Provaznik2Marasek6n = 8Marasek took 6 of 8
S5Provaznik3Marasek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikMarasekP − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.043.4−6.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 309 vs 122 / 24148.5%50.6%150 / 309 vs 122 / 241Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarasekProvaznik 2.25/Marasek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Marasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 13:15L. Provaznik29611661D. Marasek3711411113
LAug 5 · 13:45L. Provaznik2791170D. Marasek351113113
WJul 31 · 16:14L. Provaznik48118511133D. Marasek50911118112
LJul 31 · 13:45L. Provaznik4211118752D. Marasek50891111113
WJun 10 · 14:45L. Provaznik44131145113D. Marasek48116111192
LMay 25 · 14:45L. Provaznik145360D. Marasek331111113
WApr 29 · 16:13L. Provaznik51111199113D. Marasek4578111182
LApr 29 · 15:15L. Provaznik4251181172D. Marasek45117115113
LApr 24 · 19:15L. Provaznik31611861D. Marasek4011711113
LApr 16 · 19:45L. Provaznik4241112692D. Marasek511181011113
L. Provaznik10
LSep 20 · 16:29P. Hala1.8011211113L. Provaznik1.91711661WSep 20 · 15:30L. Provaznik1.9131115113P. Hala1.801141361LSep 20 · 14:30L. Provaznik2.3841111662M. Hajek1.53119411113LSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123WSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113WSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120WSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380
D. Marasek10
WSep 23 · 14:30P. Semrad1.57711125112D. Marasek2.251171011133LSep 18 · 16:20P. Semrad1.67711611113D. Marasek2.1011511832LSep 18 · 15:15D. Marasek2.25731171P. Semrad1.5711118113WSep 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.731111109113M. Hajek2.0076121172WSep 18 · 13:15D. Marasek1.4013118113L. Kolman2.751181161WSep 15 · 16:49D. Marasek1.831211113M. Hajek1.8310790LSep 15 · 15:45M. Hajek1.831117113D. Marasek1.8391570WSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113WSep 15 · 13:15Z. Vasatko1.6771181182D. Marasek2.10119115113WSep 7 · 16:38D. Marasek1.831115119113L. Smazik1.8351741172
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