TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Moravec vs Milan Dvorak 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Petr Moravec
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1188111210711511
Milan Dvorak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:11 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Moravec above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 94 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 55.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Petr Moravec 14–15 Milan Dvorak Petr Moravec has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1483 vs Dvorak 1512
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 20% vs Dvorak 80%
Dvorak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 10% vs Dvorak 50%
Dvorak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -4 · Dvorak +2
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.67 / Dvorak 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+1.8pp
TT Cup · #13188318
Moravec1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 43 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Dvorak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 36 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec7wins
AwayDvorak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec83.3%5 of 6
AwayDvorak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec6Dvorak4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Moravec6Dvorak4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Moravec6Dvorak4n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Moravec6Dvorak1n = 7Moravec took 6 of 7
S5Moravec2Dvorak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecDvorakM − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.9+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 219 vs 168 / 35150.2%47.9%110 / 219 vs 168 / 351Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.67/Dvorak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 15:55P. Moravec3611113113M. Dvorak22251141
WJul 22 · 16:25P. Moravec5610111111133M. Dvorak50121359112
WJul 7 · 16:20P. Moravec351113113M. Dvorak2251160
LMay 22 · 16:20P. Moravec48101315101M. Dvorak52121513123
WMar 24 · 19:30P. Moravec41621111113M. Dvorak4611118882
WMar 24 · 17:55P. Moravec43111110113M. Dvorak33851281
LMar 20 · 18:25P. Moravec49101151582M. Dvorak531261113113
WMar 17 · 17:25P. Moravec331111113M. Dvorak224990
WMar 6 · 19:35P. Moravec331111113M. Dvorak205960
LMar 6 · 17:55P. Moravec3911671142M. Dvorak49811118113
P. Moravec10
LSep 24 · 15:20Z. Zahradka3.001111113P. Moravec1.369480LSep 24 · 14:50J. Hendrych1.731191511113P. Moravec2.0081117662LSep 17 · 10:08A. Langer1.911111113P. Moravec1.804880LSep 17 · 08:55A. Langer1.671311811113P. Moravec2.1015711752WSep 17 · 08:25O. Fiklik1.73711891P. Moravec2.0011711113LSep 17 · 07:25P. Moravec2.50211751A. Rek1.5011711113LSep 16 · 09:59J. Vonasek1.53971111113P. Moravec2.3811116432LSep 16 · 08:55J. Vonasek1.57101211113P. Moravec2.251210661LSep 16 · 08:25A. Rek1.5711811113P. Moravec2.25711581LSep 16 · 07:25P. Moravec2.1098100V. Jr1.671111123
M. Dvorak10
WSep 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.911111113J. Hendrych1.802530WSep 24 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.8311591682M. Dvorak1.832111114113LSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak1.91113114113M. Dvorak1.8091161172WSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.8371111113D. Tichy1.83114691LSep 21 · 14:20J. Cerny1.8061111113M. Dvorak1.91119991WSep 17 · 17:30D. Sykora1.709630M. Dvorak2.021111113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Sochor1.80131110113M. Dvorak1.911161271LSep 17 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00612661J. Hendrych1.73111011113LSep 17 · 14:20D. Sykora1.8311111113M. Dvorak1.83841151
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