TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119311116411117
Milan Dvorak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:29 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 84 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 11–12 Milan Dvorak Jakub Dvorak has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Dvorak beat Dvorak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1504 vs Dvorak 1476
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Dvorak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.91 / Dvorak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13172047
Dvorak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 62 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Dvorak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 27 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it57% 17 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak6wins
AwayDvorak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak75%3 of 4
AwayDvorak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Dvorak8Dvorak2n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S4Dvorak3Dvorak6n = 9Dvorak took 6 of 9
S5Dvorak3Dvorak1n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakDvorakDvorak − DvorakBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.9+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 350 vs 167 / 35049.1%47.7%172 / 350 vs 167 / 350Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.91/Dvorak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 18:00J. Dvorak40113114113M. Dvorak4491161172
LSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak344119101M. Dvorak3911511123
WSep 16 · 17:49J. Dvorak331111113M. Dvorak219750
LSep 16 · 16:50J. Dvorak33961171M. Dvorak4211119113
WSep 9 · 18:05J. Dvorak50811119113M. Dvorak4611971182
LSep 9 · 15:25J. Dvorak4697111272M. Dvorak511111810113
WAug 31 · 15:55J. Dvorak579111113133M. Dvorak48118315112
LAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak361111771M. Dvorak4271311113
WJul 31 · 16:25J. Dvorak3711411113M. Dvorak25511361
WMay 14 · 15:20J. Dvorak3741111113M. Dvorak31119471
J. Dvorak10
LSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:20J. Cerny1.83311641J. Dvorak1.8311211113WSep 21 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8310970J. Dvorak1.831211113LSep 19 · 10:04J. Dvorak1.619850R. Jamrich2.201111113LSep 19 · 09:25J. Dvorak1.7361161192A. Kral2.00116117113LSep 19 · 07:55J. Kulveit1.6714117113J. Dvorak2.101291151WSep 19 · 07:25R. Jamrich2.0041111892J. Dvorak1.73114711113LSep 18 · 18:30J. Dvorak1.65119181182D. Tichy2.109111613113WSep 18 · 17:25J. Dvorak1.7311118113F. Marat2.00861171WSep 18 · 15:55R. Jamrich1.5710911111J. Dvorak2.2512117133
M. Dvorak10
WSep 21 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.804119101M. Dvorak1.9111511123WSep 21 · 15:50M. Dvorak1.8371111113D. Tichy1.83114691LSep 21 · 14:20J. Cerny1.8061111113M. Dvorak1.91119991WSep 17 · 17:30D. Sykora1.709630M. Dvorak2.021111113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Sochor1.80131110113M. Dvorak1.911161271LSep 17 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00612661J. Hendrych1.73111011113LSep 17 · 14:20D. Sykora1.8311111113M. Dvorak1.83841151LSep 16 · 17:49M. Dvorak1.679750J. Dvorak2.101111113WSep 16 · 16:50J. Dvorak1.91961171M. Dvorak1.8011119113WSep 16 · 15:50M. Dvorak2.00115811113D. Tichy1.7361111232
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