TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Rene Kowal vs David Sarganek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115116––––
David Sarganek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRene Kowal above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 25–27 David Sarganek Rene Kowal has won 25 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:32What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-27 in 52
Sarganek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1644 vs Sarganek 1676
Sarganek
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 80% vs Sarganek 60%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 60% vs Sarganek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal +2 · Sarganek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.91 / Sarganek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sarganek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13185914
Kowal1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Sarganek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal3wins
AwaySarganek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal60%3 of 5
AwaySarganek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kowal5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowal6Sarganek4n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S4Kowal0Sarganek5n = 5Sarganek took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalSarganekK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.433.9−1.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 298 vs 262 / 50250.7%52.2%151 / 298 vs 262 / 502Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekKowal 1.91/Sarganek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal25115811D. Sarganek3741111113
LSep 21 · 18:10R. Kowal491511111022D. Sarganek49172712113
WSep 19 · 21:15R. Kowal341111123D. Sarganek2486100
LSep 19 · 18:10R. Kowal361351081D. Sarganek45111112113
WSep 15 · 21:13R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek196760
LSep 15 · 20:15R. Kowal227690D. Sarganek331111113
WSep 9 · 20:15R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek185850
LAug 4 · 15:40R. Kowal31591161D. Sarganek3511112113
LJul 22 · 18:45R. Kowal209830D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 21 · 19:40R. Kowal41311111242D. Sarganek46116414113
R. Kowal10
WSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113LSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113WSep 23 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.91114151R. Kowal1.8081111113LSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892
D. Sarganek10
WSep 23 · 19:40P. Vicherek2.00119231D. Sarganek1.7391111113WSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113LSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.571771110102A. Baros2.251511812123LSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080LSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113LSep 21 · 20:48D. Sarganek1.739390P. Vicherek2.001111113WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123
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