TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Antonin Baros vs Rene Kowal 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911311––––
Rene Kowal
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntonin Baros to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Antonin Baros at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 26–24 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:11What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Baros
Wrong
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baros 1682 vs Kowal 1628
Baros
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baros 80% vs Kowal 60%
Baros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baros 80% vs Kowal 50%
Baros
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baros +3 · Kowal -1
Baros
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.00 / Kowal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baros)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13183868
Baros2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Kowal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 42 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros5wins
AwayKowal5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros80%4 of 5
AwayKowal80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros5Kowal5n = 10split evenly
S2Baros6Kowal4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S3Baros3Kowal7n = 10Kowal took 7 of 10
S4Baros6Kowal3n = 9Baros took 6 of 9
S5Baros2Kowal2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosKowalB − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.6+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 407 vs 150 / 29746.9%50.5%191 / 407 vs 150 / 297Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalBaros 2.00/Kowal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros341211113R. Kowal2010550
LSep 21 · 20:10A. Baros48117101192R. Kowal47511128113
WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros47611811113R. Kowal4511611892
LSep 15 · 19:15A. Baros481011611102R. Kowal41123113123
WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros4011117113R. Kowal30961141
WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros521181111113R. Kowal4491113292
LAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros28841151R. Kowal3811115113
WJul 22 · 20:38A. Baros3811115113R. Kowal33691171
LJul 22 · 17:45A. Baros27911341R. Kowal3911611113
LJul 21 · 20:34A. Baros28761141R. Kowal3911116113
A. Baros10
LSep 23 · 20:35A. Baros1.91116691P. Vicherek1.8091111113WSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113WSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.571771110102A. Baros2.251511812123WSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791LSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.207460A. Baros1.611111113WSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros1.73511136113J. Skvrna2.00116111182WSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550LSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152
R. Kowal10
WSep 23 · 21:05R. Kowal1.911211113D. Sarganek1.8010560LSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113WSep 23 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.91114151R. Kowal1.8081111113LSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892
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