TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Antonin Baros vs Rene Kowal 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Antonin Baros
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115115––––
Rene Kowal
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingAntonin Baros above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5
54 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Baros 25–24 Rene Kowal Rene Kowal has won 24 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kowal beat Baros 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaros 2.00 / Kowal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kowal)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13173248
Baros2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 55 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back21% 18 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Kowal1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaros4wins
AwayKowal6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKowal leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaros75%3 of 4
AwayKowal83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baros4Kowal6n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S2Baros6Kowal4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S3Baros3Kowal7n = 10Kowal took 7 of 10
S4Baros6Kowal4n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S5Baros2Kowal3n = 5Kowal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBarosKowalB − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.2−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBarosKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 400 vs 149 / 29446.3%50.7%185 / 400 vs 149 / 294Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalBaros 2.00/Kowal 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kowal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 20:10A. Baros48117101192R. Kowal47511128113
WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros47611811113R. Kowal4511611892
LSep 15 · 19:15A. Baros481011611102R. Kowal41123113123
WAug 31 · 20:15A. Baros4011117113R. Kowal30961141
WAug 26 · 18:15A. Baros521181111113R. Kowal4491113292
LAug 10 · 20:10A. Baros28841151R. Kowal3811115113
WJul 22 · 20:38A. Baros3811115113R. Kowal33691171
LJul 22 · 17:45A. Baros27911341R. Kowal3911611113
LJul 21 · 20:34A. Baros28761141R. Kowal3911116113
LJul 21 · 17:40A. Baros4481116542R. Kowal561191411113
A. Baros10
LSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152WSep 21 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.678611161A. Baros2.1011118183LSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143LSep 19 · 19:40A. Baros2.2013980D. Sarganek1.611511113WSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113WSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113LSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102
R. Kowal10
WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081WSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113LSep 15 · 20:15D. Sarganek1.671111113R. Kowal2.107690WSep 15 · 19:15R. Kowal1.73123113123A. Baros2.001011611102
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