TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Petr Vicherek vs Rene Kowal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Petr Vicherek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411111511––
Rene Kowal
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:41 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vicherek above · Rene Kowal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 62 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Rene Kowal at 56.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vicherek 20–26 Rene Kowal Petr Vicherek has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kowal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-26 in 46
Kowal
Correct
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vicherek 1658 vs Kowal 1627
Vicherek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vicherek 40% vs Kowal 60%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vicherek 30% vs Kowal 50%
Kowal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vicherek +1 · Kowal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vicherek) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vicherek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVicherek 1.91 / Kowal 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vicherek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13182273
Vicherek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back25% 16 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Kowal1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 42 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVicherek6wins
AwayKowal4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVicherek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVicherek71.4%5 of 7
AwayKowaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vicherek7Kowal2n = 9Vicherek took 7 of 9
S2Vicherek5Kowal4n = 9Vicherek took 5 of 9
S3Vicherek4Kowal5n = 9Kowal took 5 of 9
S4Vicherek5Kowal2n = 7Vicherek took 5 of 7
S5Vicherek0Kowal3n = 3Kowal took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVicherekKowalV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match39.736.9+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVicherekKowalBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 367 vs 149 / 29547.1%50.5%173 / 367 vs 149 / 295Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VicherekVicherek 1.91/Kowal 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vicherek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kowal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek5181191492R. Kowal521171112113
LSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek46116118102R. Kowal40511111123
WSep 9 · 20:40P. Vicherek4211911113R. Kowal34911591
WSep 9 · 19:15P. Vicherek4111118113R. Kowal32861171
LAug 31 · 20:45P. Vicherek248880R. Kowal331111113
WAug 31 · 19:15P. Vicherek341111123R. Kowal2367100
LAug 10 · 19:10P. Vicherek3911116922R. Kowal48961111113
WJul 22 · 19:45P. Vicherek4111118113R. Kowal34691181
WJul 15 · 19:40P. Vicherek3911411133R. Kowal367117111
P. Vicherek10
LSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113WSep 21 · 20:48D. Sarganek1.739390P. Vicherek2.001111113LSep 21 · 19:40P. Vicherek1.91112111052D. Sarganek1.80711112113LSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.678611161A. Baros2.1011118183WSep 15 · 20:43A. Baros2.10113761P. Vicherek1.6751111113LSep 15 · 19:45P. Vicherek1.73613691A. Baros2.00111111113WSep 15 · 18:45P. Vicherek1.91561111113D. Sarganek1.8011116752LSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123LSep 14 · 17:20P. Vicherek1.91971151D. Sarganek1.8011117113
R. Kowal10
LSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081WSep 15 · 21:13D. Sarganek1.616760R. Kowal2.201111113WSep 15 · 17:45P. Vicherek1.91116118102R. Kowal1.80511111123
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