TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Sarganek vs Antonin Baros 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
David Sarganek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
171571111810121012
Antonin Baros
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Sarganek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sarganek above · Antonin Baros below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 113 set 5, 10-12 — our read held David Sarganek at 54.0%
113 points played in total.
H2H David Sarganek 40–26 Antonin Baros Antonin Baros has won 26 of their 66 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Baros beat Sarganek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sarganek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-26 in 66
Sarganek
Wrong
gap of 14 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sarganek 1654 vs Baros 1662
Baros
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sarganek 40% vs Baros 80%
Baros
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sarganek 50% vs Baros 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sarganek -1 · Baros +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baros form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSarganek 1.57 / Baros 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sarganek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13183762
Sarganek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Baros2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSarganek5wins
AwayBaros5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSarganek66.7%2 of 3
AwayBaros57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sarganek3Baros7n = 10Baros took 7 of 10
S2Sarganek7Baros3n = 10Sarganek took 7 of 10
S3Sarganek4Baros6n = 10Baros took 6 of 10
S4Sarganek4Baros2n = 6Sarganek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSarganekBarosS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.335.30.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSarganekBarosBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 499 vs 189 / 40552.1%46.7%260 / 499 vs 189 / 405Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekSarganek 1.57/Baros 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 17:19D. Sarganek32511791A. Baros4111811113
WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek4071111113A. Baros28118631
LSep 21 · 19:10D. Sarganek3611361152A. Baros43111119113
WSep 19 · 19:40D. Sarganek371511113A. Baros3013980
WSep 15 · 18:15D. Sarganek4281111123A. Baros381198101
LSep 8 · 20:40D. Sarganek367118101A. Baros3711311123
LSep 8 · 18:40D. Sarganek2610880A. Baros341211113
LAug 20 · 20:15D. Sarganek2567120A. Baros361111143
WAug 18 · 21:14D. Sarganek341211113A. Baros2110560
WAug 18 · 19:15D. Sarganek45811411113A. Baros4511611892
D. Sarganek10
WSep 23 · 19:40P. Vicherek2.00119231D. Sarganek1.7391111113WSep 23 · 19:10R. Kowal1.91115811D. Sarganek1.8041111113LSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080LSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113LSep 21 · 20:48D. Sarganek1.739390P. Vicherek2.001111113WSep 21 · 19:40P. Vicherek1.91112111052D. Sarganek1.80711112113LSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022
A. Baros10
WSep 23 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.73841151A. Baros2.0011115113WSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791LSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 15:10M. Zaskodny2.207460A. Baros1.611111113WSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros1.73511136113J. Skvrna2.00116111182WSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550LSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 19:10A. Baros2.20111119113D. Sarganek1.6111361152WSep 21 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.678611161A. Baros2.1011118183LSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143
Upcoming Matches
D. Sarganek
Nothing scheduled
A. Baros
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