TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Rene Kowal vs David Sarganek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Rene Kowal
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114511811111––
David Sarganek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRene Kowal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRene Kowal above · David Sarganek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 62 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Rene Kowal at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Rene Kowal 25–26 David Sarganek Rene Kowal has won 25 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sarganek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-26 in 51
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowal 1639 vs Sarganek 1655
Sarganek
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowal 60% vs Sarganek 40%
Kowal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowal 60% vs Sarganek 40%
Kowal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowal +1 · Sarganek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sarganek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sarganek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowal 1.91 / Sarganek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sarganek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13183761
Kowal1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Sarganek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 64 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 43 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowal3wins
AwaySarganek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSarganek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowal75%3 of 4
AwaySarganek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowal4Sarganek6n = 10Sarganek took 6 of 10
S2Kowal5Sarganek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kowal6Sarganek4n = 10Kowal took 6 of 10
S4Kowal0Sarganek4n = 4Sarganek took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowalSarganekK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.333.5−1.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalSarganekBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 296 vs 260 / 50050.7%52%150 / 296 vs 260 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SarganekKowal 1.91/Sarganek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sarganek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sarganek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 18:10R. Kowal491511111022D. Sarganek49172712113
WSep 19 · 21:15R. Kowal341111123D. Sarganek2486100
LSep 19 · 18:10R. Kowal361351081D. Sarganek45111112113
WSep 15 · 21:13R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek196760
LSep 15 · 20:15R. Kowal227690D. Sarganek331111113
WSep 9 · 20:15R. Kowal331111113D. Sarganek185850
LAug 4 · 15:40R. Kowal31591161D. Sarganek3511112113
LJul 22 · 18:45R. Kowal209830D. Sarganek331111113
LJul 21 · 19:40R. Kowal41311111242D. Sarganek46116414113
LJul 15 · 21:05R. Kowal247980D. Sarganek331111113
R. Kowal10
WSep 23 · 20:10A. Baros2.006930R. Kowal1.731111113WSep 23 · 17:40P. Vicherek1.91114151R. Kowal1.8081111113LSep 21 · 21:18A. Baros2.001211113R. Kowal1.7310550WSep 21 · 20:10R. Kowal1.73511128113A. Baros2.00117101192WSep 21 · 18:40P. Vicherek1.9181191492R. Kowal1.801171112113LSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022WSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 18:40A. Baros2.00611811113R. Kowal1.7311611892LSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081
D. Sarganek10
WSep 23 · 19:40P. Vicherek2.00119231D. Sarganek1.7391111113LSep 23 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.571771110102A. Baros2.251511812123LSep 23 · 17:19A. Baros2.2511811113D. Sarganek1.57511791WSep 23 · 15:40D. Sarganek1.6171111113A. Baros2.20118631WSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080LSep 23 · 13:40D. Sarganek1.83471371M. Zaskodny1.83111111113LSep 21 · 20:48D. Sarganek1.739390P. Vicherek2.001111113WSep 21 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73172712113R. Kowal2.001511111022LSep 19 · 21:15D. Sarganek1.7386100R. Kowal2.001111123WSep 19 · 18:10D. Sarganek1.73111112113R. Kowal2.001351081
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