TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Pavel Chvatal 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911811811––
Pavel Chvatal
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 59.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–4 Pavel Chvatal Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Chmelicek beat Chvatal 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1479 vs Chvatal 1605
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 100% vs Chvatal 80%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 80% vs Chvatal 60%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +7 · Chvatal +2
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.25 / Chvatal 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Chvatal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13184957
Chmelicek2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 66 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Chvatal1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 41 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayChvatal4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderChvatal leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChvatal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek2Chvatal3n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
S2Chmelicek1Chvatal4n = 5Chvatal took 4 of 5
S3Chmelicek1Chvatal4n = 5Chvatal took 4 of 5
S4Chmelicek1Chvatal2n = 3Chvatal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricChmelicekChvatalChmelicek − ChvatalBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match33.240.0−6.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 529 vs 142 / 26247.3%54.2%250 / 529 vs 142 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChmelicek 2.25/Chvatal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 23 · 14:05M. Chmelicek51128118123P. Chvatal501011811102
LJun 26 · 12:05M. Chmelicek162950P. Chvatal331111113
LJun 26 · 09:10M. Chmelicek3871181112P. Chvatal40115112113
LJun 26 · 07:05M. Chmelicek28117100P. Chvatal361311123
LJun 17 · 14:05M. Chmelicek33118681P. Chvatal4181111113
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 23 · 16:35T. Motacek1.5051111992M. Chmelicek2.50113911113WSep 23 · 15:35M. Chmelicek2.381111123D. Hons1.5399100WSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WSep 22 · 21:35M. Chmelicek2.0011911113J. Kabelka1.73311981WSep 22 · 20:35M. Chmelicek1.301113113M. Jinek3.4061130WSep 22 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.5311551192M. Chmelicek2.38711119113WSep 22 · 18:35J. Kabelka1.73613871M. Chmelicek2.00111111113LSep 22 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.83911111182P. Pesout1.83116613113LSep 22 · 14:35T. Krcil1.831111113M. Chmelicek1.835240WSep 20 · 21:44M. Chmelicek2.5071111123L. Vosyka1.501199101
P. Chvatal10
WSep 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115681WSep 23 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.83611711113T. Motacek1.8311911692LSep 23 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.501011811102M. Chmelicek2.50128118123WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
P. Chvatal
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