TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jachym Sebl vs Vojtech Koutnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411115511711––
Vojtech Koutnik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Vojtech Koutnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 11–13 Vojtech Koutnik Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sebl beat Koutnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koutnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Koutnik
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1659 vs Koutnik 1631
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Koutnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Koutnik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +2 · Koutnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.00 / Koutnik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Koutnik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13179765
Sebl2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Koutnik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 46 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl3wins
AwayKoutnik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl50%2 of 4
AwayKoutnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Koutnik6n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Sebl3Koutnik7n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Sebl2Koutnik8n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Sebl3Koutnik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblKoutnikS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.838.3−5.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblKoutnikBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 630 vs 178 / 36548.4%48.8%305 / 630 vs 178 / 365Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikSebl 2.00/Koutnik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:20J. Sebl3811511113V. Koutnik30611491
LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl3191390V. Koutnik371115113
LJun 27 · 09:59J. Sebl186660V. Koutnik331111113
LJun 27 · 08:55J. Sebl3431011101V. Koutnik3911124123
LMay 9 · 21:55J. Sebl163490V. Koutnik331111113
LMay 9 · 21:25J. Sebl28115661V. Koutnik3851111113
WApr 6 · 10:25J. Sebl48111115113V. Koutnik43981791
LApr 6 · 06:55J. Sebl238870V. Koutnik331111113
WMar 28 · 16:25J. Sebl47911511113V. Koutnik4511811872
LMar 20 · 12:55J. Sebl4512118592V. Koutnik521091111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181WSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113LSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941LSep 20 · 08:55J. Sebl1.59101111892Z. Muhlhauser2.07127811113LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152
V. Koutnik10
WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik1.61611491J. Sebl2.2011511113WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580LSep 20 · 09:25V. Koutnik1.701448111J. Cousin2.02121111133WSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 07:25Z. Muhlhauser1.9511711952V. Koutnik1.74911311113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113LSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951
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