TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Chaloupka vs Borek Moravec 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811411911––
Borek Moravec
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 23–39 Borek Moravec Frantisek Chaloupka has won 23 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chaloupka beat Moravec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:47What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-39 in 62
Moravec
Correct
gap of 16 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1643 vs Moravec 1731
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 60% vs Moravec 40%
Chaloupka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 80% vs Moravec 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka -2 · Moravec -3
Moravec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 2.20 / Moravec 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13179571
Chaloupka2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 43 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Moravec1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 111 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it100% 50 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka6Moravec4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S2Chaloupka6Moravec4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Chaloupka4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Chaloupka4Moravec4n = 8split evenly
S5Chaloupka2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaMoravecC − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.1−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 540 vs 268 / 46452.2%57.8%282 / 540 vs 268 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecChaloupka 2.20/Moravec 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 16:55F. Chaloupka32118491B. Moravec4291111113
WSep 22 · 13:45F. Chaloupka331111113B. Moravec227780
LSep 16 · 15:45F. Chaloupka4411116882B. Moravec48871111113
LSep 12 · 05:40F. Chaloupka165380B. Moravec331111113
WSep 11 · 17:15F. Chaloupka4411118143B. Moravec419911121
WSep 11 · 13:45F. Chaloupka4011711113B. Moravec34911681
WSep 10 · 16:50F. Chaloupka43611114113B. Moravec4211741192
LSep 10 · 13:45F. Chaloupka4057111162B. Moravec47111195113
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka4281151172B. Moravec44117114113
WSep 6 · 06:40F. Chaloupka47111159113B. Moravec3836111172
F. Chaloupka10
LSep 22 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.61111176113F. Chaloupka2.2068111192LSep 22 · 15:15F. Chaloupka1.7396111262D. Skulina2.001111810113WSep 22 · 13:45B. Moravec1.537780F. Chaloupka2.381111113WSep 20 · 17:14F. Chaloupka1.501111113M. Zaskodny2.504680WSep 20 · 16:15F. Chaloupka1.831111113J. Skalicky1.835570WSep 20 · 14:45M. Zaskodny2.20119661F. Chaloupka1.6181111113WSep 20 · 14:15D. Skulina1.9179111192F. Chaloupka1.80111197113WSep 19 · 13:15F. Chaloupka1.6081111113R. Benes2.07117881WSep 19 · 11:45K. Kleprlik1.83911961F. Chaloupka1.8311611113WSep 19 · 11:15R. Benes2.10611461F. Chaloupka1.6711911113
B. Moravec10
LSep 22 · 15:45B. Moravec1.4461111111D. Skulina2.6311613133LSep 22 · 14:45B. Moravec1.8091191162J. Pribyl1.91116117113LSep 22 · 13:45B. Moravec1.537780F. Chaloupka2.381111113WSep 16 · 17:14B. Moravec1.53111178133D. Skulina2.38791111112WSep 16 · 15:45B. Moravec1.50871111113F. Chaloupka2.5011116882WSep 16 · 14:45B. Moravec1.44117119113B. Mrowetz2.6351191172WSep 16 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50811118113D. Skulina2.5011631162WSep 15 · 19:15B. Moravec1.47117119113D. Skulina2.5091181172WSep 15 · 17:13B. Moravec1.44117119113D. Skulina2.6391181172WSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551
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