TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Stapor vs Bartosz Sulkowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117411118711117
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
117411118711117
H2H Rafal Stapor 13–20 Bartosz Sulkowski Rafal Stapor has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Sulkowski
Wrong
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1450 vs Sulkowski 1549
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Sulkowski 60%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 50% vs Sulkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +4 · Sulkowski +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.85 / Sulkowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulkowski)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13174450
Stapor1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 101 of 287
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 104
Sulkowski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 182 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it82% 130 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwaySulkowski7wins
Sulkowski leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwaySulkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Sulkowski6n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Stapor3Sulkowski7n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S3Stapor6Sulkowski4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor0Sulkowski4n = 4Sulkowski took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporSulkowskiStapor − SulkowskiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.933.2−3.3per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime684 / 1213 vs 576 / 129256.4%44.6%684 / 1213 vs 576 / 1292Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiStapor 1.85/Sulkowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 10:10R. Stapor259880B. Sulkowski331111113
LSep 10 · 05:30R. Stapor2310490B. Sulkowski341211113
LSep 9 · 05:15R. Stapor31118661B. Sulkowski4291111113
WSep 3 · 06:05R. Stapor341111123B. Sulkowski2394100
LAug 27 · 14:20R. Stapor325511111B. Sulkowski4011115133
WAug 26 · 09:25R. Stapor331111113B. Sulkowski209920
LAug 23 · 21:55R. Stapor327101141B. Sulkowski4211128113
LAug 22 · 15:00R. Stapor2147100B. Sulkowski341111123
WAug 20 · 14:40R. Stapor331111113B. Sulkowski208390
LAug 19 · 09:25R. Stapor35881361B. Sulkowski44111111113
R. Stapor10
WSep 22 · 03:50R. Stapor1.451211113D. Wrobel2.5010760WSep 21 · 08:10R. Stapor1.501291111113M. Lukaszewski2.3514117992WSep 21 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.809780R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.854690R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 04:55R. Stapor1.751111113F. Krcil1.906590LSep 21 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20411761A. Sobel1.5711611113LSep 20 · 14:35A. Wos1.5311911123R. Stapor2.388117101WSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841LSep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.3361111113R. Stapor3.25118481LSep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.001111113R. Stapor1.733980
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 22 · 03:25B. Wisniewski3.008101271B. Sulkowski1.32111210113WSep 21 · 24:10K. Rudomina2.00591171B. Sulkowski1.7311118113WSep 20 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.50911114113P. Blocho1.5011481172LSep 20 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.755970M. Kolek1.401111113LSep 20 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.25741181L. Pietraszko1.5711116113WSep 20 · 20:05M. Kolek1.408611151B. Sulkowski2.7511117173LSep 20 · 19:15K. Rudomina1.801111113B. Sulkowski1.915850WSep 20 · 17:20A. Wos1.507850B. Sulkowski2.501111113LSep 20 · 16:30P. Blocho1.5071513123B. Sulkowski2.50111311101WSep 20 · 15:00L. Pietraszko1.675101151B. Sulkowski2.1011127113
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