TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214911117119119
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
2.35
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
1214911117119119
H2H Rafal Stapor 22–15 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Stapor
Correct
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1443 vs Lukaszewski 1307
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 60% vs Lukaszewski 0%
Stapor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 40% vs Lukaszewski 20%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +3 · Lukaszewski -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (0%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.50 / Lukaszewski 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stapor)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13166856
Stapor1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 386 of 618
Up 2–0, closes it96% 194 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it81% 294 of 365
Lukaszewski2.35
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 257 of 636
Down 0–1, comes back14% 47 of 349
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 193
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor6wins
AwayLukaszewski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor80%4 of 5
AwayLukaszewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Lukaszewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor8Lukaszewski2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Stapor7Lukaszewski3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S4Stapor4Lukaszewski3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5Stapor1Lukaszewski3n = 4Lukaszewski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporLukaszewskiS − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.7+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime683 / 1212 vs 906 / 199756.4%45.4%683 / 1212 vs 906 / 1997Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.50/Lukaszewski 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.2%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 03:25R. Stapor37713891M. Lukaszewski44111111113
WJun 11 · 10:10R. Stapor351111133M. Lukaszewski2274110
LJun 10 · 04:30R. Stapor4391111842M. Lukaszewski49117911113
WMay 27 · 07:05R. Stapor4291111113M. Lukaszewski33117871
WMay 27 · 04:35R. Stapor331111113M. Lukaszewski164660
WMay 21 · 12:35R. Stapor351311113M. Lukaszewski2211380
WMay 19 · 10:55R. Stapor52991111123M. Lukaszewski49111198102
LMay 17 · 20:05R. Stapor5513101111102M. Lukaszewski571112913123
WMay 13 · 10:30R. Stapor4311129113M. Lukaszewski369101161
LMay 13 · 06:40R. Stapor521211101182M. Lukaszewski49145127113
R. Stapor10
WSep 21 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.809780R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 05:40M. Zwolinski2.854690R. Stapor1.361111113WSep 21 · 04:55R. Stapor1.751111113F. Krcil1.906590LSep 21 · 03:50R. Stapor2.20411761A. Sobel1.5711611113LSep 20 · 14:35A. Wos1.5311911123R. Stapor2.388117101WSep 20 · 13:20R. Stapor1.83151111113M. Minda1.83178841LSep 20 · 12:05R. Chrzescian1.3361111113R. Stapor3.25118481LSep 20 · 10:50G. Kesik2.001111113R. Stapor1.733980LSep 20 · 09:20M. Woskowicz2.20511617113R. Stapor1.61116111522LSep 20 · 07:45R. Stapor3.509680G. Poliniewicz1.281111113
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 21 · 07:20F. Krcil1.76611118113M. Lukaszewski1.9011951152LSep 21 · 05:15B. Wisniewski1.951211143M. Lukaszewski1.75108120LSep 21 · 04:30A. Sobel1.25117125113M. Lukaszewski3.05811101162LSep 21 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.101111143M. Lukaszewski1.6084120LSep 20 · 14:15K. Kufel1.4071111113M. Lukaszewski2.75118951LSep 20 · 13:25M. Misiak1.601111113M. Lukaszewski2.108340LSep 20 · 11:20P. Maruszak1.751111133M. Lukaszewski1.9547110WSep 20 · 10:30M. Zagajewski1.7069110M. Lukaszewski2.001111133LSep 20 · 09:00I. Dabrowski1.63131367113M. Lukaszewski2.151111111152WSep 20 · 08:05M. Misiak1.6077111172M. Lukaszewski2.10111159113
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