TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Mykhailo Mykhailenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811811118117114
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Mykhailo Mykhailenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 90 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 84.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 13–2 Mykhailo Mykhailenko Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5884.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-2 in 15
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1107 vs Mykhailenko 824
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 283 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Mykhailenko 20%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Mykhailenko 20%
Ponomarenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Mykhailenko -4
Mykhailenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.20 / Mykhailenko 4.333
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13265879
Ponomarenko1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 86 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it88% 67 of 76
Mykhailenko4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 23 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko8wins
AwayMykhailenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%7 of 7
AwayMykhailenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Mykhailenko3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko5Mykhailenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ponomarenko6Mykhailenko4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Mykhailenko0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMykhailenkoP − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.231.0+5.2per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMykhailenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 663 vs 30 / 11547.1%26.1%312 / 663 vs 30 / 115Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.332.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.20/Mykhailenko 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko49881111113M. Mykhailenko4111118742
WOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko331111113M. Mykhailenko167450
WOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3812411113M. Mykhailenko371011881
WSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko581191111163M. Mykhailenko52911135142
WSep 25 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko4213126113M. Mykhailenko4111101191
LSep 12 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko209650M. Mykhailenko331111113
LAug 23 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko224990M. Mykhailenko331111113
WAug 18 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko331111113M. Mykhailenko164480
WAug 15 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko341112113M. Mykhailenko2351080
WJul 19 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko331111113M. Mykhailenko187740
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880LOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113WOct 8 · 09:35O. Miklukha1.613460O. Ponomarenko2.201111113LOct 8 · 08:35O. Ponomarenko1.138870O. Efimov5.501111113WOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113WOct 7 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.441112511113V. Mykhalchenko2.6341411572WOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960
M. Mykhailenko10
LOct 9 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko7.00781151S. Osipov1.0811117113LOct 8 · 12:05M. Mykhailenko2.2033100O. Efimov1.611111123LOct 8 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.2811119113M. Mykhailenko3.50681131LOct 8 · 08:05O. Miklukha1.14311411113M. Mykhailenko5.0011211642WOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191LOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.1012101251O. Efimov1.67141210113LOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881WOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.101371111113D. Kunchurov1.6515115682LOct 2 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.53712116113M. Mykhailenko2.38111071152
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