TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141214511115117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleh Ponomarenko @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 61.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 17–8 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 8 of their 25 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:3661.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 7.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-8 in 25
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 9 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1123 vs Mykhalchenko 1069
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Mykhalchenko 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 90% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +3 · Mykhalchenko +1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.444 / Mykhalchenko 2.625
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256184
Ponomarenko1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 83 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Mykhalchenko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 17 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayMykhalchenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%5 of 5
AwayMykhalchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko5Mykhalchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ponomarenko7Mykhalchenko3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko5Mykhalchenko4n = 9Ponomarenko took 5 of 9
S4Ponomarenko4Mykhalchenko2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5Ponomarenko3Mykhalchenko1n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMykhalchenkoP − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.3+4.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 658 vs 120 / 21147.1%56.9%310 / 658 vs 120 / 211Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.44/Mykhalchenko 2.63
Hit
What we said
61.7%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleh Ponomarenko @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 2 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko331111113V. Mykhalchenko197840
WSep 25 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko45751111113V. Mykhalchenko4511116892
LSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko31613391V. Mykhalchenko44111111113
WAug 23 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko46414611113V. Mykhalchenko43111211362
WAug 22 · 08:50O. Ponomarenko49117812113V. Mykhalchenko39411111032
WAug 9 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko331111113V. Mykhalchenko164930
LJul 22 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko4157111172V. Mykhalchenko43111173113
WJul 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko331111113V. Mykhalchenko154740
LJun 28 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko407119131V. Mykhalchenko4511811153
O. Ponomarenko10
LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113WOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960WOct 7 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.9114711113O. Miklukha1.801211881WOct 4 · 11:05O. Riabuha3.506760O. Ponomarenko1.281111113LOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.44311141152D. Kunchurov2.63115167113WOct 4 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko1.2511611113K. Vernudin3.35911551WOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151WOct 4 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko1.22711126113O. Efimov4.00118101192WOct 2 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.331211123K. Vernudin3.25105100
V. Mykhalchenko10
WOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153WOct 7 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.53113115113O. Miklukha2.3871171172LOct 7 · 13:00O. Stopin1.2511911113V. Mykhalchenko3.75911931LOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450WOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192WOct 3 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.67891171V. Mykhalchenko2.1011116113LOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110LOct 3 · 05:35O. Stopin1.331211113V. Mykhalchenko3.2510950LOct 2 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.30107110D. Kunchurov3.401211133WOct 2 · 17:00K. Vernudin3.401187101V. Mykhalchenko1.3061111123
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