TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyryl Vernudin vs Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168117111012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched: 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Mykhalchenko to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Vernudin above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Volodymyr Mykhalchenko at 74.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Vernudin 2–4 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Kyryl Vernudin has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5974.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 2.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mykhalchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Mykhalchenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vernudin 964 vs Mykhalchenko 1074
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vernudin 60% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Vernudin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vernudin 50% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vernudin +3 · Mykhalchenko -2
Vernudin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Mykhalchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVernudin 3.40 / Mykhalchenko 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Mykhalchenko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229110
Vernudin3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 11 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Mykhalchenko1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 49 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVernudin2wins
AwayMykhalchenko4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderMykhalchenko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVernudin50%2 of 4
AwayMykhalchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vernudin4Mykhalchenko2n = 6Vernudin took 4 of 6
S2Vernudin2Mykhalchenko4n = 6Mykhalchenko took 4 of 6
S3Vernudin0Mykhalchenko6n = 6Mykhalchenko took 6 of 6
S4Vernudin2Mykhalchenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricVernudinMykhalchenkoV − MBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match32.039.3−7.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVernudinMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 54 vs 120 / 21240.7%56.6%22 / 54 vs 120 / 212Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MykhalchenkoVernudin 3.40/Mykhalchenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Mykhalchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 25 · 17:00K. Vernudin4411119133V. Mykhalchenko347511111
LSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin217770V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LAug 29 · 08:30K. Vernudin268990V. Mykhalchenko331111113
LAug 22 · 07:50K. Vernudin3711461152V. Mykhalchenko51911119113
LAug 9 · 07:05K. Vernudin26115641V. Mykhalchenko4071111113
WJul 12 · 15:08K. Vernudin38111123113V. Mykhalchenko4598111162
K. Vernudin10
LOct 2 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.331211123K. Vernudin3.25105100WOct 2 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.2811118113O. Efimov3.50681171WOct 2 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.53712116113M. Mykhailenko2.38111071152WOct 2 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.8011119113D. Kunchurov1.91981151LSep 26 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko3.7581111113K. Vernudin1.25117981LSep 26 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.83131111113K. Vernudin1.83154551LSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161WSep 26 · 06:30D. Kunchurov1.8369111172K. Vernudin1.83111188113LSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.361111143K. Vernudin3.0089120LSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851
V. Mykhalchenko10
LOct 2 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.801111113V. Mykhalchenko1.917840LOct 2 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.10113811102O. Efimov6.50711118123WOct 2 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.507770V. Mykhalchenko1.051111113WSep 25 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754730LSep 25 · 17:00K. Vernudin4.5011119133V. Mykhalchenko1.177511111LSep 25 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.83751111113V. Mykhalchenko1.8311116892WSep 25 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251191111153D. Kunchurov3.75131168132WSep 25 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.008370V. Mykhalchenko1.061111113LSep 20 · 17:40Y. Korotin1.8311121511123V. Mykhalchenko1.831314139102LSep 20 · 16:10V. Mykhalchenko1.80117671S. Kovalenko1.9161111113
Upcoming Matches
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V. Mykhalchenko
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