TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Kyryl Vernudin 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191412––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Kyryl Vernudin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 65 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 72.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 7–0 Kyryl Vernudin Kyryl Vernudin has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Ponomarenko beat Vernudin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1021 vs Vernudin 951
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Vernudin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 50% vs Vernudin 70%
Vernudin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +3 · Vernudin -1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vernudin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.36 / Vernudin 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13196177
Ponomarenko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 77 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it98% 39 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Vernudin3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 11 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayVernudin0wins
1 of 7 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–0, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%6 of 6
AwayVernudinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Vernudin1n = 7Ponomarenko took 6 of 7
S2Ponomarenko5Vernudin2n = 7Ponomarenko took 5 of 7
S3Ponomarenko7Vernudin0n = 7Ponomarenko took 7 of 7
S4Ponomarenko2Vernudin1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoVernudinP − VBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match38.626.7+11.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoVernudinBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 657 vs 18 / 4746.4%38.3%305 / 657 vs 18 / 47Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.36/Vernudin 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko361111143K. Vernudin2989120
WSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko4211911113K. Vernudin29511851
WAug 25 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko43111011113K. Vernudin31712481
WAug 22 · 05:50O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Vernudin239680
WAug 18 · 14:40O. Ponomarenko50811119113K. Vernudin4011481162
WAug 9 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Vernudin135530
WJul 25 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Vernudin227870
O. Ponomarenko10
WSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3313126113M. Mykhailenko3.2511101191WSep 25 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.83751111113V. Mykhalchenko1.8311116892LSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.1799120O. Efimov4.501111143LSep 25 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.4411116592D. Kunchurov2.63461111113LSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko1.67613391V. Mykhalchenko2.10111111113LSep 12 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.179650M. Mykhailenko4.501111113LSep 12 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.08117091S. Kuzko7.0071111113WSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.44101111113D. Kunchurov2.63126871
K. Vernudin10
LSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 17:00K. Vernudin4.5011119133V. Mykhalchenko1.177511111LSep 25 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.673970D. Kunchurov2.101111103WSep 25 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.20118119123M. Mykhailenko4.33811411102WSep 25 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.611111143O. Efimov2.2065120WSep 5 · 10:30M. Zaiats1.6711611972K. Vernudin2.10911711113LSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871WSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961
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