TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyryl Vernudin vs Dmytro Kunchurov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118911115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kunchurov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKyryl Vernudin above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Dmytro Kunchurov at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Vernudin 4–3 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2154.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vernudin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vernudin 929 vs Kunchurov 958
Kunchurov
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vernudin 20% vs Kunchurov 40%
Kunchurov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vernudin 40% vs Kunchurov 60%
Kunchurov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vernudin -3 · Kunchurov +1
Vernudin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kunchurov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVernudin 1.80 / Kunchurov 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kunchurov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229178
Vernudin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 26)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kunchurov1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 26)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 34 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back13% 9 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVernudin4wins
AwayKunchurov3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderVernudin leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVernudin100%3 of 3
AwayKunchurov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vernudin3Kunchurov4n = 7Kunchurov took 4 of 7
S2Vernudin5Kunchurov2n = 7Vernudin took 5 of 7
S3Vernudin3Kunchurov3n = 6split evenly
S4Vernudin1Kunchurov5n = 6Kunchurov took 5 of 6
S5Vernudin3Kunchurov1n = 4Vernudin took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricVernudinKunchurovV − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match45.847.3−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVernudinKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 51 vs 87 / 22137.3%39.4%19 / 51 vs 87 / 221Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KunchurovVernudin 1.80/Kunchurov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kunchurov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vernudin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 26 · 06:30K. Vernudin49111188113D. Kunchurov4469111172
WSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin50111197123D. Kunchurov49891111102
LAug 29 · 04:30K. Vernudin36931771D. Kunchurov48111115113
WAug 22 · 09:50K. Vernudin4071111113D. Kunchurov33117781
WAug 18 · 16:10K. Vernudin53111293183D. Kunchurov557101111162
LJul 12 · 12:09K. Vernudin47813121042D. Kunchurov5511111012113
K. Vernudin10
LSep 26 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko3.7581111113K. Vernudin1.25117981LSep 26 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.83131111113K. Vernudin1.83154551LSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161WSep 26 · 06:30D. Kunchurov1.8369111172K. Vernudin1.83111188113LSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.361111143K. Vernudin3.0089120LSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 17:00K. Vernudin4.5011119133V. Mykhalchenko1.177511111LSep 25 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.673970D. Kunchurov2.101111103WSep 25 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.20118119123M. Mykhailenko4.33811411102WSep 25 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.611111143O. Efimov2.2065120
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.509870WSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661LSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162LSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480LSep 26 · 06:30D. Kunchurov1.8369111172K. Vernudin1.83111188113WSep 26 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.253515101D. Kunchurov1.57111113123WSep 25 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko1.917880D. Kunchurov1.801111113WSep 25 · 17:30O. Efimov3.40121020D. Kunchurov1.301412103WSep 25 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.673970D. Kunchurov2.101111103LSep 25 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251191111153D. Kunchurov3.75131168132
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