TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyryl Vernudin vs Mykhailo Mykhailenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111210117611115
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Vernudin to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Vernudin above · Mykhailo Mykhailenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Kyryl Vernudin at 62.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Vernudin 4–2 Mykhailo Mykhailenko Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2962.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vernudin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Vernudin
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vernudin 945 vs Mykhailenko 858
Vernudin
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vernudin 40% vs Mykhailenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vernudin 40% vs Mykhailenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vernudin +1 · Mykhailenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Vernudin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vernudin form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVernudin 1.533 / Mykhailenko 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Vernudin)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229111
Vernudin1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Mykhailenko2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 23 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeVernudin4wins
AwayMykhailenko2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderVernudin leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVernudin60%3 of 5
AwayMykhailenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vernudin5Mykhailenko1n = 6Vernudin took 5 of 6
S2Vernudin3Mykhailenko3n = 6split evenly
S3Vernudin4Mykhailenko2n = 6Vernudin took 4 of 6
S4Vernudin2Mykhailenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricVernudinMykhailenkoV − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match40.334.2+6.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVernudinMykhailenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 52 vs 28 / 10438.5%26.9%20 / 52 vs 28 / 104Avg sets wonper match1.71.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.632.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VernudinVernudin 1.53/Mykhailenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Vernudin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vernudin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 26 · 11:00K. Vernudin35117981M. Mykhailenko4181111113
WSep 25 · 14:30K. Vernudin51118119123M. Mykhailenko44811411102
WSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin43101111113M. Mykhailenko34127871
WAug 29 · 11:00K. Vernudin331111113M. Mykhailenko203980
WAug 18 · 17:10K. Vernudin331111113M. Mykhailenko219660
LJul 12 · 16:39K. Vernudin4711971192M. Mykhailenko45311119113
K. Vernudin10
WOct 2 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.8011119113D. Kunchurov1.91981151LSep 26 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko3.7581111113K. Vernudin1.25117981LSep 26 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.83131111113K. Vernudin1.83154551LSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161WSep 26 · 06:30D. Kunchurov1.8369111172K. Vernudin1.83111188113LSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.361111143K. Vernudin3.0089120LSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 17:00K. Vernudin4.5011119133V. Mykhalchenko1.177511111LSep 25 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.673970D. Kunchurov2.101111103WSep 25 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.20118119123M. Mykhailenko4.33811411102
M. Mykhailenko10
LOct 2 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.507770V. Mykhalchenko1.051111113WSep 26 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko3.7581111113K. Vernudin1.25117981LSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.301191111163M. Mykhailenko3.40911135142LSep 26 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7511811862K. Tsoi1.25911511113WSep 26 · 07:00O. Stopin1.1391040M. Mykhailenko5.501112113LSep 26 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.253515101D. Kunchurov1.57111113123LSep 25 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko1.917880D. Kunchurov1.801111113LSep 25 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3313126113M. Mykhailenko3.2511101191WSep 25 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.63911116143O. Efimov1.44119811122LSep 25 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.20118119123M. Mykhailenko4.33811411102
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