TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Oleh Miklukha 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412711118118––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Miklukha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Oleh Miklukha below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Miklukha at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 66–38 Oleh Miklukha Oleh Miklukha has won 38 of their 104 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:5454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Miklukha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
66-38 in 104
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 28 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1107 vs Miklukha 1058
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Miklukha 0%
Ponomarenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 90% vs Miklukha 10%
Ponomarenko
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Miklukha -9
Miklukha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Miklukha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miklukha form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.909 / Miklukha 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256108
Ponomarenko1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog33% won 37 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Miklukha1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 30) · back after a break
Lost last 9
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 38 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 24 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko5wins
AwayMiklukha5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko60%3 of 5
AwayMiklukha60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko5Miklukha5n = 10split evenly
S2Ponomarenko4Miklukha6n = 10Miklukha took 6 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Miklukha7n = 10Miklukha took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Miklukha3n = 7Ponomarenko took 4 of 7
S5Ponomarenko3Miklukha1n = 4Ponomarenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMiklukhaP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.640.6−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMiklukhaBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 659 vs 207 / 45747%45.3%310 / 659 vs 207 / 457Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.91/Miklukha 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Miklukha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko4411139113O. Miklukha379111161
LAug 25 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko3811611101O. Miklukha4513119123
WJul 28 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko43123611113O. Miklukha46101111952
LJul 22 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko48111281162O. Miklukha549101113113
LJul 15 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko219660O. Miklukha331111113
LJun 30 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko341111751O. Miklukha4491311113
WJun 24 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko44511511123O. Miklukha47118117102
LJun 15 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko239860O. Miklukha331111113
WJun 2 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko46851111113O. Miklukha4611119872
WMay 29 · 11:05O. Ponomarenko351113113O. Miklukha2121180
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 4 · 11:05O. Riabuha3.506760O. Ponomarenko1.281111113LOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.44311141152D. Kunchurov2.63115167113WOct 4 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko1.2511611113K. Vernudin3.35911551WOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151WOct 4 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko1.22711126113O. Efimov4.00118101192WOct 2 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.331211123K. Vernudin3.25105100WOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881WOct 2 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.801111113V. Mykhalchenko1.917840WOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.509870WOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090
O. Miklukha10
LSep 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin2.38611511113O. Miklukha1.5311511862LSep 30 · 10:05O. Miklukha3.25711681V. Kondratenko1.3311711113LSep 30 · 09:05O. Miklukha3.25641171S. Hovorunets1.3311116113LSep 30 · 07:35O. Miklukha2.254540V. Stukalov1.571111113LSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113LSep 29 · 17:10V. Stukalov1.501161311113O. Miklukha2.50711111372LSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111LSep 29 · 14:40V. Kondratenko1.30111343113O. Miklukha3.40811111172LSep 29 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.33411119123O. Miklukha3.25118711102WSep 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.251179101O. Miklukha1.5791111123
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