TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Mukhin vs Oleh Miklukha 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611115511118116
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched: 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeOleh Miklukha to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Oleh Miklukha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 85 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Oleh Miklukha at 57.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 5–10 Oleh Miklukha Vitalii Mukhin has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0357.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 7.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Miklukha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Miklukha
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1305 vs Miklukha 1063
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 243 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 60% vs Miklukha 0%
Mukhin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Miklukha 10%
Mukhin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +1 · Miklukha -8
Miklukha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Miklukha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miklukha form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 2.375 / Miklukha 1.533
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Miklukha)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218467
Mukhin2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 31 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 38
Miklukha1.53
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 38 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin3wins
AwayMiklukha7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMiklukha leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin33.3%1 of 3
AwayMiklukha71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin3Miklukha7n = 10Miklukha took 7 of 10
S2Mukhin3Miklukha7n = 10Miklukha took 7 of 10
S3Mukhin2Miklukha8n = 10Miklukha took 8 of 10
S4Mukhin3Miklukha3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinMiklukhaMukhin − MiklukhaBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.536.8−5.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinMiklukhaBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 350 vs 208 / 46051.7%45.2%181 / 350 vs 208 / 460Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MiklukhaMukhin 2.38/Miklukha 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Miklukha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin371179101O. Miklukha4391111123
LSep 24 · 10:30V. Mukhin357611111O. Miklukha4211117133
LAug 19 · 10:30V. Mukhin195950O. Miklukha331111113
WAug 18 · 10:30V. Mukhin4291111113O. Miklukha29119541
LJul 20 · 10:30V. Mukhin204880O. Miklukha331111113
LJul 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin31119381O. Miklukha4071111113
LJun 30 · 09:00V. Mukhin2257100O. Miklukha341111123
LJun 24 · 16:40V. Mukhin2361250O. Miklukha361114113
WJun 22 · 11:05V. Mukhin4011117113O. Miklukha31591161
WJun 17 · 16:40V. Mukhin46411812113O. Miklukha47118111072
V. Mukhin10
WSep 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113V. Stukalov4.338840LSep 30 · 08:05V. Mukhin2.201171011V. Kondratenko1.6161112113WSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380LSep 30 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.50881161S. Hovorunets2.5011119113WSep 29 · 16:40V. Mukhin2.5010111110113V. Kondratenko1.5012881272WSep 29 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.221111113V. Stukalov4.001750WSep 29 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.571111133S. Hovorunets2.2597110LSep 29 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.5061221162S. Semenets2.501110119113LSep 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.251179101O. Miklukha1.5791111123WSep 27 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.251111113V. Stukalov3.757720
O. Miklukha10
LSep 30 · 10:05O. Miklukha3.25711681V. Kondratenko1.3311711113LSep 30 · 09:05O. Miklukha3.25641171S. Hovorunets1.3311116113LSep 30 · 07:35O. Miklukha2.254540V. Stukalov1.571111113LSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113LSep 29 · 17:10V. Stukalov1.501161311113O. Miklukha2.50711111372LSep 29 · 16:10S. Semenets1.53101112133O. Miklukha2.3812910111LSep 29 · 14:40V. Kondratenko1.30111343113O. Miklukha3.40811111172LSep 29 · 12:40S. Hovorunets1.33411119123O. Miklukha3.25118711102WSep 29 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.251179101O. Miklukha1.5791111123LSep 27 · 17:10O. Miklukha3.00131080V. Kondratenko1.361512113
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