TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Stopin vs Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911119113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 74 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Oleh Stopin at 81.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 9–1 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5981.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
clears by 1.3pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Stopin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Stopin
Correct
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1210 vs Mykhalchenko 1066
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 80% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Stopin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 80% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Stopin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin +3 · Mykhalchenko -1
Stopin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Stopin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.25 / Mykhalchenko 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Stopin)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13256013
Stopin1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 58 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Mykhalchenko3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 17 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStopin9wins
AwayMykhalchenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStopin leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin100%7 of 7
AwayMykhalchenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin7Mykhalchenko3n = 10Stopin took 7 of 10
S2Stopin9Mykhalchenko1n = 10Stopin took 9 of 10
S3Stopin7Mykhalchenko3n = 10Stopin took 7 of 10
S4Stopin3Mykhalchenko1n = 4Stopin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStopinMykhalchenkoS − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.326.9+9.4per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 278 vs 121 / 21453.6%56.5%149 / 278 vs 121 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StopinStopin 1.25/Mykhalchenko 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 05:35O. Stopin341211113V. Mykhalchenko2410950
WSep 20 · 11:10O. Stopin331111113V. Mykhalchenko167360
LSep 19 · 08:20O. Stopin174580V. Mykhalchenko331111113
WJul 31 · 13:00O. Stopin4611177113V. Mykhalchenko346151121
WJul 8 · 13:00O. Stopin45811113123V. Mykhalchenko43119211102
WJul 4 · 06:05O. Stopin331111113V. Mykhalchenko175570
WJun 28 · 16:40O. Stopin45121111113V. Mykhalchenko33144691
WJun 14 · 13:10O. Stopin4011117113V. Mykhalchenko32681171
WMay 22 · 14:30O. Stopin371111153V. Mykhalchenko2676130
WOct 4 · 05:35O. Stopin331111113V. Mykhalchenko111550
O. Stopin10
WOct 3 · 11:05V. Varchenko1.73621191O. Stopin2.0011117113WOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 09:05O. Stopin2.3861113113P. Ostrovskyi1.531151161LOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113WOct 3 · 05:35O. Stopin1.331211113V. Mykhalchenko3.2510950WSep 26 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko3.7589111482O. Stopin1.251111912113WSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162WSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161LSep 26 · 07:00O. Stopin1.1391040M. Mykhailenko5.501112113WSep 26 · 05:00O. Stopin1.221411113K. Tsoi4.0012820
V. Mykhalchenko10
LOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450WOct 3 · 10:35V. Mykhalchenko2.75111153113P. Ostrovskyi1.4027111192WOct 3 · 08:35V. Kucheriavyi1.67891171V. Mykhalchenko2.1011116113LOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110LOct 3 · 05:35O. Stopin1.331211113V. Mykhalchenko3.2510950LOct 2 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.30107110D. Kunchurov3.401211133WOct 2 · 17:00K. Vernudin3.401187101V. Mykhalchenko1.3061111123LOct 2 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.801111113V. Mykhalchenko1.917840LOct 2 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.10113811102O. Efimov6.50711118123WOct 2 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.507770V. Mykhalchenko1.051111113
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