TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Oleh Stopin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111191412811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 104 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 81.3%
104 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 3–48 Oleh Stopin Oleh Ponomarenko has won 3 of their 51 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Stopin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-48 in 51
Stopin
Correct
gap of 45 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1064 vs Stopin 1170
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Stopin 60%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Stopin 40%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +7 · Stopin +2
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Stopin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 3.75 / Stopin 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Stopin)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13196694
Ponomarenko3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 38 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Stopin1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 52 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko0wins
AwayStopin10wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStopin leads 10–0, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko0%0 of 4
AwayStopin100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Stopin6n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko3Stopin7n = 10Stopin took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko2Stopin8n = 10Stopin took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko2Stopin5n = 7Stopin took 5 of 7
S5Ponomarenko0Stopin4n = 4Stopin took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoStopinP − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.044.1−10.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 660 vs 148 / 28246.7%52.5%308 / 660 vs 148 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinPonomarenko 3.75/Stopin 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 09:50O. Ponomarenko176830O. Stopin331111113
LAug 26 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko52171161082O. Stopin581591112113
LAug 2 · 10:50O. Ponomarenko521111512132O. Stopin545131110153
LJul 31 · 18:30O. Ponomarenko4211111281O. Stopin4571314113
LJul 15 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko174490O. Stopin331111113
LJul 11 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko28611561O. Stopin4211911113
LJul 5 · 08:20O. Ponomarenko4479121152O. Stopin501111107113
LJul 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko4212411782O. Stopin521011911113
LJun 28 · 15:10O. Ponomarenko31711761O. Stopin4111811113
LJun 14 · 16:40O. Ponomarenko152580O. Stopin331111113
O. Ponomarenko10
WSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.301191111163M. Mykhailenko3.40911135142WSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638480WSep 26 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.401111113K. Tsoi2.759560WSep 26 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.361111143K. Vernudin3.0089120WSep 25 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.3311911113K. Vernudin3.25511851WSep 25 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3313126113M. Mykhailenko3.2511101191WSep 25 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.83751111113V. Mykhalchenko1.8311116892LSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.1799120O. Efimov4.501111143LSep 25 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.4411116592D. Kunchurov2.63461111113LSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko1.67613391V. Mykhalchenko2.10111111113
O. Stopin10
WSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162WSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161LSep 26 · 07:00O. Stopin1.1391040M. Mykhailenko5.501112113WSep 26 · 05:00O. Stopin1.221411113K. Tsoi4.0012820LSep 20 · 16:40V. Varchenko2.20121311113O. Stopin1.611411351LSep 20 · 15:40O. Stopin2.7510750Y. Korotin1.401211113WSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 13:10O. Stopin3.001174111V. Kondratenko1.3671111133WSep 20 · 11:10O. Stopin1.501111113V. Mykhalchenko2.507360LSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153
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