TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Varchenko vs Oleh Stopin 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611211117911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 68 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 10–13 Oleh Stopin Volodymyr Varchenko has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Stopin
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1201 vs Stopin 1198
Varchenko
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 40% vs Stopin 80%
Stopin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 60% vs Stopin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -2 · Stopin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Varchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.727 / Stopin 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Varchenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234613
Varchenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 21 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Stopin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 14 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarchenko6wins
AwayStopin4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko80%4 of 5
AwayStopin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko5Stopin5n = 10split evenly
S2Varchenko5Stopin5n = 10split evenly
S3Varchenko4Stopin6n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S4Varchenko4Stopin3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarchenkoStopinV − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.136.5+0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 233 vs 149 / 28246.4%52.8%108 / 233 vs 149 / 282Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.73/Stopin 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 16:40V. Varchenko47121311113O. Stopin331411351
LSep 19 · 09:20V. Varchenko226880O. Stopin331111113
LSep 5 · 08:35V. Varchenko311110821O. Stopin4281211113
WAug 23 · 07:35V. Varchenko42114124113O. Stopin42611101142
WAug 16 · 10:05V. Varchenko50841213133O. Stopin5411111011112
WAug 2 · 08:20V. Varchenko4211128113O. Stopin378101181
WJul 31 · 14:30V. Varchenko331111113O. Stopin207850
LJul 15 · 13:00V. Varchenko2899100O. Stopin341111123
LJul 11 · 05:30V. Varchenko351011951O. Stopin4312911113
WApr 26 · 07:35V. Varchenko4111118113O. Stopin27941131
V. Varchenko10
LOct 3 · 09:35V. Varchenko1.8091111992V. Kucheriavyi1.91119611113LOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113WOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110WOct 3 · 05:05V. Varchenko1.671111123P. Ostrovskyi2.1093100LSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122WSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841WSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181LSep 27 · 10:40V. Varchenko2.635560V. Kondratenko1.441111113WSep 22 · 17:10V. Varchenko2.101111113D. Khavanskyi1.677350
O. Stopin10
WOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 09:05O. Stopin2.3861113113P. Ostrovskyi1.531151161LOct 3 · 07:35O. Stopin2.005880V. Kucheriavyi1.731111113WOct 3 · 05:35O. Stopin1.331211113V. Mykhalchenko3.2510950WSep 26 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko3.7589111482O. Stopin1.251111912113WSep 26 · 09:30O. Stopin1.17119135113D. Kunchurov4.50711111162WSep 26 · 08:30O. Stopin1.28111119113K. Vernudin3.50692161LSep 26 · 07:00O. Stopin1.1391040M. Mykhailenko5.501112113WSep 26 · 05:00O. Stopin1.221411113K. Tsoi4.0012820LSep 20 · 16:40V. Varchenko2.20121311113O. Stopin1.611411351
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