TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Dmytro Kunchurov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116311811118511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 70.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 62–31 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 31 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3470.8%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
clears by 1.5pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
62-31 in 93
Ponomarenko
Wrong
gap of 31 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1106 vs Kunchurov 989
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Kunchurov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Kunchurov 50%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Kunchurov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.444 / Kunchurov 2.625
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+1.5pp
Setka Cup · #13261334
Ponomarenko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 85 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it89% 66 of 74
Kunchurov2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayKunchurov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKunchurov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Kunchurov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Kunchurov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko5Kunchurov5n = 10split evenly
S4Ponomarenko4Kunchurov2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5Ponomarenko2Kunchurov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.4+4.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 660 vs 97 / 24047%40.4%310 / 660 vs 97 / 240Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.44/Kunchurov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko2061040D. Kunchurov341112113
LOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko44311141152D. Kunchurov50115167113
WOct 2 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov249870
WSep 26 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov208480
LSep 25 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko4211116592D. Kunchurov43461111113
WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko43101111113D. Kunchurov33126871
WAug 23 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko44115116113D. Kunchurov4381191142
WAug 22 · 11:50O. Ponomarenko511181011113D. Kunchurov4551112982
WAug 18 · 11:10O. Ponomarenko331111113D. Kunchurov163580
WAug 15 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko4111118113D. Kunchurov36981181
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 8 · 09:35O. Miklukha1.613460O. Ponomarenko2.201111113LOct 8 · 08:35O. Ponomarenko1.138870O. Efimov5.501111113WOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113WOct 7 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.441112511113V. Mykhalchenko2.6341411572WOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960WOct 7 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.9114711113O. Miklukha1.801211881WOct 4 · 11:05O. Riabuha3.506760O. Ponomarenko1.281111113
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 8 · 10:35O. Efimov3.75671111113D. Kunchurov1.2511115992WOct 8 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.361151112122D. Kunchurov3.00511414143LOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191WOct 8 · 05:05O. Miklukha1.251181111102D. Kunchurov3.75611613123WOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 16:00D. Kunchurov2.75571281O. Miklukha1.40111110113LOct 7 · 14:30D. Kunchurov4.33981171O. Stopin1.2011117113WOct 7 · 12:30D. Kunchurov1.25101111133O. Efimov3.751297111WOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov1.2561111113O. Efimov3.75111951
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