TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Oleh Efimov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811711––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched: 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Oleh Efimov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 56 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 81.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 9–1 Oleh Efimov Oleh Efimov has won 1 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:3381.8%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 7.1pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-1 in 10
Ponomarenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1120 vs Efimov 796
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 324 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Efimov 0%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 70% vs Efimov 10%
Ponomarenko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Efimov -8
Efimov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Efimov form (0%) is below what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.125 / Efimov 5.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-7.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261226
Ponomarenko1.13
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 85 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it89% 66 of 74
Efimov5.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog18% won 6 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayEfimov1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%7 of 7
AwayEfimov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Efimov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Efimov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko8Efimov2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Efimov1n = 5Ponomarenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoEfimovP − EBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.229.5+7.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoEfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 660 vs 13 / 6447.1%20.3%311 / 660 vs 13 / 64Avg sets wonper match1.91.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.432.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.13/Efimov 5.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Efimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Efimov194960
WOct 4 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko47711126113O. Efimov49118101192
WOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko341112113O. Efimov2671090
LSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko3099120O. Efimov361111143
WJun 2 · 05:30O. Ponomarenko4012611113O. Efimov351011861
WApr 23 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Efimov217950
WApr 16 · 07:05O. Ponomarenko4071111113O. Efimov29114771
WApr 3 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko331111113O. Efimov158610
WFeb 6 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko4312118123O. Efimov3510411101
WJan 30 · 11:00O. Ponomarenko3911611113O. Efimov30711841
O. Ponomarenko10
WOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko3.509980O. Stopin1.281111113WOct 7 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko1.441112511113V. Mykhalchenko2.6341411572WOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960WOct 7 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.9114711113O. Miklukha1.801211881WOct 4 · 11:05O. Riabuha3.506760O. Ponomarenko1.281111113LOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.44311141152D. Kunchurov2.63115167113WOct 4 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko1.2511611113K. Vernudin3.35911551
O. Efimov10
LOct 8 · 06:35O. Miklukha1.1771111113O. Efimov4.50119581LOct 8 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.22711912113O. Efimov4.00116111092LOct 7 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113O. Efimov4.003660LOct 7 · 17:30O. Efimov4.5013271172O. Miklukha1.171111118113LOct 7 · 15:30O. Stopin1.251211113O. Efimov3.7510470LOct 7 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754960LOct 7 · 12:30D. Kunchurov1.25101111133O. Efimov3.751297111LOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov1.2561111113O. Efimov3.75111951WOct 4 · 10:35O. Efimov3.751111113K. Vernudin1.254780LOct 4 · 08:35K. Tsoi1.737101111113O. Efimov2.0011121472
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