TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Stukalov vs Dmytro Kunchurov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11551111412141214
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:04 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 99 set 5, 12-14 · our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 75.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 33–9 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 9 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0475.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
clears by 1.7pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Stukalov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-9 in 42
Stukalov
Wrong
gap of 24 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1151 vs Kunchurov 990
Stukalov
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 40% vs Kunchurov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 30% vs Kunchurov 60%
Kunchurov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -1 · Kunchurov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Stukalov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stukalov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.363 / Kunchurov 3.00
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Stukalov)+1.7pp
Setka Cup · #13261628
Stukalov1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it77% 53 of 69
Kunchurov3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStukalov7wins
AwayKunchurov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStukalov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStukalov80%4 of 5
AwayKunchurov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stukalov5Kunchurov5n = 10split evenly
S2Stukalov7Kunchurov3n = 10Stukalov took 7 of 10
S3Stukalov9Kunchurov1n = 10Stukalov took 9 of 10
S4Stukalov3Kunchurov4n = 7Kunchurov took 4 of 7
S5Stukalov2Kunchurov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStukalovKunchurovS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.634.6+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 860 vs 96 / 23849.3%40.3%424 / 860 vs 96 / 238Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.36/Kunchurov 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 11 · 05:30V. Stukalov4071111113D. Kunchurov34119681
LJun 4 · 09:00V. Stukalov3811125642D. Kunchurov485101111113
LMay 26 · 07:00V. Stukalov51991211102D. Kunchurov491111105123
LMay 19 · 08:00V. Stukalov389101181D. Kunchurov3711123113
WMay 12 · 05:00V. Stukalov331111113D. Kunchurov229670
WMay 7 · 09:00V. Stukalov50911127113D. Kunchurov45119101142
WApr 28 · 07:00V. Stukalov331111113D. Kunchurov216960
WApr 23 · 11:00V. Stukalov48911116113D. Kunchurov3811841142
WApr 21 · 06:00V. Stukalov4211911113D. Kunchurov30611671
WApr 20 · 06:00V. Stukalov331111113D. Kunchurov229940
V. Stukalov10
WOct 8 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.2811119113M. Mykhailenko3.50681131LOct 8 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.4461111772O. Ponomarenko2.63116611113WOct 8 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.22711912113O. Efimov4.00116111092WOct 7 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.7581111163S. Hovorunets1.401149141LOct 7 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.1411114113V. Stukalov5.00771151LOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123WOct 7 · 07:35V. Kondratenko1.6111711572V. Stukalov2.20811711113LOct 7 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.4073121382O. Mytsyk1.3011111011113LOct 6 · 16:40V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.503840LOct 6 · 15:40V. Stukalov2.75113111482S. Hovorunets1.40211916113
D. Kunchurov10
LOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191WOct 8 · 05:05O. Miklukha1.251181111102D. Kunchurov3.75611613123WOct 7 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko1.4061040D. Kunchurov2.751112113LOct 7 · 17:00D. Kunchurov2.639911131V. Mykhalchenko1.4411119153LOct 7 · 16:00D. Kunchurov2.75571281O. Miklukha1.40111110113LOct 7 · 14:30D. Kunchurov4.33981171O. Stopin1.2011117113WOct 7 · 12:30D. Kunchurov1.25101111133O. Efimov3.751297111WOct 4 · 12:05D. Kunchurov1.2561111113O. Efimov3.75111951WOct 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.44311141152D. Kunchurov2.63115167113WOct 4 · 08:03O. Riabuha1.838880D. Kunchurov1.831111113
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