TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Mukhin vs Vladyslav Stukalov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117411115––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched: 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Vladyslav Stukalov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 67 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 86.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 34–8 Vladyslav Stukalov Vladyslav Stukalov has won 8 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3086.8%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 0.8pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Mukhin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-8 in 42
Mukhin
Correct
gap of 26 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1360 vs Stukalov 1150
Mukhin
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Stukalov 20%
Mukhin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 70% vs Stukalov 20%
Mukhin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +4 · Stukalov -1
Mukhin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Mukhin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.142 / Stukalov 5.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Mukhin)-0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13257770
Mukhin1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 103 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it88% 79 of 90
Stukalov5.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 111 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back17% 27 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMukhin10wins
AwayStukalov0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMukhin leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhin100%10 of 10
AwayStukalovn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin10Stukalov0n = 10Mukhin took 10 of 10
S2Mukhin10Stukalov0n = 10Mukhin took 10 of 10
S3Mukhin9Stukalov1n = 10Mukhin took 9 of 10
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home990%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMukhinStukalovM − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match34.420.1+14.3per matchSweeps90+93–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinStukalovBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 363 vs 422 / 85652.6%49.3%191 / 363 vs 422 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.14/Stukalov 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mukhin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 16:40V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov153840
WOct 2 · 11:05V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov179440
WSep 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov208840
WSep 29 · 15:10V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov131750
WSep 27 · 11:05V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov167720
WSep 24 · 09:00V. Mukhin47111195113V. Stukalov3966111152
WSep 20 · 09:35V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov206590
WSep 18 · 09:35V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov203980
WSep 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov195860
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin331111113V. Stukalov229850
V. Mukhin10
WOct 7 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.001111133O. Mytsyk1.3657110WOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171WOct 6 · 16:40V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.503840WOct 6 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.44811511113P. Ostrovskyi2.6311411692LOct 6 · 13:40V. Mukhin1.57111171192S. Hovorunets2.25513113113LOct 6 · 12:10V. Mukhin1.50164121182S. Semenets2.501811105113LOct 6 · 10:40V. Mukhin2.7596111172S. Skhabitskiy1.40111177113WOct 2 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.509440WOct 2 · 09:35V. Mukhin4.331111113S. Skhabitskiy1.208680WOct 2 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.501111127113S. Semenets2.50813101132
V. Stukalov10
LOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123WOct 7 · 07:35V. Kondratenko1.6111711572V. Stukalov2.20811711113LOct 7 · 06:05V. Stukalov3.4073121382O. Mytsyk1.3011111011113LOct 6 · 16:40V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.503840LOct 6 · 15:40V. Stukalov2.75113111482S. Hovorunets1.40211916113LOct 6 · 14:40V. Stukalov2.2511101121S. Skhabitskiy1.5791213113LOct 6 · 13:10V. Stukalov2.2541220P. Ostrovskyi1.571114113LOct 6 · 11:10V. Stukalov1.91111110792S. Semenets1.80941211113WOct 4 · 15:45V. Stukalov2.00114118113V. Varchenko1.7361161182LOct 2 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.171111113V. Stukalov4.509440
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