TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Mykhailenko vs Sergey Osipov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811117511––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched: 90.0% is still 90.0%
Graded at full timeSergey Osipov to win
90.0%
90.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Sergey Osipov at 90.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 1–6 Sergey Osipov Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2890.0%Our read92.3%to break even at 1.083
short by 2.3pp92.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.083 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Osipov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Osipov
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 831 vs Osipov 1190
Osipov
Correct
both rated, 360 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 20% vs Osipov 40%
Osipov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 20% vs Osipov 50%
Osipov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -3 · Osipov +1
Mykhailenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% · Strong (leans Osipov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (40%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 7.00 / Osipov 1.083
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Osipov)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266148
Mykhailenko7.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 23 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Osipov1.08
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 32 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMykhailenko1wins
AwayOsipov6wins
Osipov leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOsipov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko1Osipov6n = 7Osipov took 6 of 7
S2Mykhailenko3Osipov4n = 7Osipov took 4 of 7
S3Mykhailenko2Osipov5n = 7Osipov took 5 of 7
S4Mykhailenko1Osipov4n = 5Osipov took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away457%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoOsipovM − OBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match29.939.6−9.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 113 vs 129 / 27626.6%46.7%30 / 113 vs 129 / 276Avg sets wonper match1.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match32.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OsipovMykhailenko 7.00/Osipov 1.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90%
Osipov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Osipov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 28 · 14:30M. Mykhailenko198380S. Osipov331111113
LAug 18 · 11:40M. Mykhailenko28136451S. Osipov44111111113
LJul 19 · 06:05M. Mykhailenko31911921S. Osipov4211911113
LJul 12 · 15:40M. Mykhailenko35911781S. Osipov4211911113
LJun 20 · 06:00M. Mykhailenko30921181S. Osipov4211119113
LMay 2 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2495100S. Osipov341111123
WApr 25 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko4261114113S. Osipov401191281
M. Mykhailenko10
LOct 8 · 12:05M. Mykhailenko2.2033100O. Efimov1.611111123LOct 8 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.2811119113M. Mykhailenko3.50681131LOct 8 · 08:05O. Miklukha1.14311411113M. Mykhailenko5.0011211642WOct 8 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko2.3861113113D. Kunchurov1.531171191LOct 8 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko1.301111113M. Mykhailenko3.407450LOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.1012101251O. Efimov1.67141210113LOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881WOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.101371111113D. Kunchurov1.6515115682LOct 2 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.53712116113M. Mykhailenko2.38111071152LOct 2 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.507770V. Mykhalchenko1.051111113
S. Osipov10
WOct 3 · 12:05S. Osipov1.251111113V. Mykhalchenko3.758450LOct 3 · 10:05O. Stopin1.731211411113S. Osipov2.0014411442WOct 3 · 08:05V. Varchenko1.448770S. Osipov2.631111113LOct 3 · 07:05S. Osipov1.73111271172P. Ostrovskyi2.00914116113LOct 3 · 06:05V. Kucheriavyi1.36581111113S. Osipov3.0011119682WSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570LSep 27 · 15:40V. Kucheriavyi1.91111173S. Osipov1.809660LSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841WSep 27 · 12:40S. Osipov2.631111133V. Kondratenko1.4486110WSep 27 · 11:40O. Miklukha1.57111051162S. Osipov2.25512116113
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