TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Mykhailenko vs Oleh Efimov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121410121210511––
Oleh Efimov
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Efimov to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Oleh Efimov below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 86 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Oleh Efimov at 55.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 1–3 Oleh Efimov Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2855.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Efimov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Efimov
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 844 vs Efimov 836
Mykhailenko
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 40% vs Efimov 20%
Mykhailenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 30% vs Efimov 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -1 · Efimov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Efimov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Efimov form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 2.10 / Efimov 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Efimov)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229081
Mykhailenko2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 23 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Efimov1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMykhailenko1wins
AwayEfimov3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderEfimov leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayEfimov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko0Efimov4n = 4Efimov took 4 of 4
S2Mykhailenko1Efimov3n = 4Efimov took 3 of 4
S3Mykhailenko3Efimov1n = 4Mykhailenko took 3 of 4
S4Mykhailenko0Efimov3n = 3Efimov took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoEfimovM − EBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match35.543.0−7.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoEfimovBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 108 vs 12 / 5326.9%22.6%29 / 108 vs 12 / 53Avg sets wonper match1.31.3per matchAvg pointsper match32.532.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EfimovMykhailenko 2.10/Efimov 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Efimov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Efimov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 2 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko3912101251O. Efimov47141210113
WSep 25 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko51911116143O. Efimov51119811122
LAug 28 · 16:30M. Mykhailenko228860O. Efimov331111113
LApr 16 · 06:05M. Mykhailenko30741181O. Efimov4111118113
M. Mykhailenko10
LOct 2 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko1.3312411113M. Mykhailenko3.251011881WOct 2 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.101371111113D. Kunchurov1.6515115682LOct 2 · 14:30K. Vernudin1.53712116113M. Mykhailenko2.38111071152LOct 2 · 13:00M. Mykhailenko8.507770V. Mykhalchenko1.051111113WSep 26 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko3.7581111113K. Vernudin1.25117981LSep 26 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.301191111163M. Mykhailenko3.40911135142LSep 26 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7511811862K. Tsoi1.25911511113WSep 26 · 07:00O. Stopin1.1391040M. Mykhailenko5.501112113LSep 26 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.253515101D. Kunchurov1.57111113123LSep 25 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko1.917880D. Kunchurov1.801111113
O. Efimov10
LOct 2 · 17:30D. Kunchurov1.221111113O. Efimov4.006870LOct 2 · 16:00K. Vernudin1.2811118113O. Efimov3.50681171WOct 2 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko1.10113811102O. Efimov6.50711118123LOct 2 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko1.301112113O. Efimov3.4071090LSep 25 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.251111113O. Efimov3.754730LSep 25 · 17:30O. Efimov3.40121020D. Kunchurov1.301412103LSep 25 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko2.63911116143O. Efimov1.44119811122WSep 25 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko1.1799120O. Efimov4.501111143LSep 25 · 12:30K. Vernudin1.611111143O. Efimov2.2065120LAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
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