TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Jan Gembala 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191181311––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:33 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Jan Gembala below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 82 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 55.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 27–22 Jan Gembala Jan Gembala has won 22 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3355.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-22 in 49
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 5 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1692 vs Gembala 1661
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Gembala 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 50% vs Gembala 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +2 · Gembala +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.666 / Gembala 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Skvrna)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256631
Skvrna1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 233 of 398
Up 2–0, closes it94% 77 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it75% 163 of 217
Gembala2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 29 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna7wins
AwayGembala3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna80%4 of 5
AwayGembala40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvrna6Gembala4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna5Gembala5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvrna7Gembala3n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaGembalaS − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.6+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaGembalaBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 866 vs 212 / 39058%54.4%502 / 866 vs 212 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.67/Gembala 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 07:40J. Skvrna4381111133J. Gembala391198111
WAug 15 · 12:10J. Skvrna52911911123J. Gembala44119113102
WAug 13 · 14:10J. Skvrna4211911113J. Gembala34711791
WAug 9 · 17:15J. Skvrna4211119113J. Gembala28361181
LAug 9 · 15:40J. Skvrna35118881J. Gembala4181111113
WJul 18 · 06:40J. Skvrna4071111113J. Gembala32115881
WJun 28 · 09:10J. Skvrna3811115113J. Gembala31681161
WJun 28 · 06:10J. Skvrna3511211113J. Gembala33711781
LJun 24 · 09:10J. Skvrna361561141J. Gembala4417115113
LJun 24 · 07:40J. Skvrna26511461J. Gembala4011711113
J. Skvrna10
WOct 7 · 06:40J. Skvrna1.67811611113L. Slavik2.1011711992WOct 7 · 05:40J. Skvrna1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.209980LOct 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.831111715113J. Skvrna1.8379111782WOct 6 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.20761151J. Skvrna1.6111118113WOct 6 · 11:10B. Mrowetz1.91911971J. Skvrna1.8011711113LOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113LOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133
J. Gembala10
WOct 7 · 07:10D. Velky Jr2.634790J. Gembala1.441111113WOct 7 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6711911113L. Slavik2.10811671LSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140LSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143WSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171WSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143LSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173
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