TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Gembala vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119711117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:38 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jan Gembala at 67.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 2–2 Dalibor Velky Jr Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1647 vs Velky Jr 1609
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 40% vs Velky Jr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 30% vs Velky Jr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +1 · Velky Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Gembala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gembala form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.40 / Velky Jr 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Gembala)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13210312
Gembala1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 19) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 81 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 65 of 82
Velky Jr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 115 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGembala2wins
AwayVelky Jr2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala2Velky Jr2n = 4split evenly
S2Gembala3Velky Jr1n = 4Gembala took 3 of 4
S3Gembala2Velky Jr2n = 4split evenly
S4Gembala2Velky Jr1n = 3Gembala took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGembalaVelky JrG − VBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.537.2+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 385 vs 285 / 57154.3%49.9%209 / 385 vs 285 / 571Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.40/Velky Jr 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 8 · 07:10J. Gembala45111211113D. Velky Jr39714991
WAug 5 · 09:14J. Gembala361411113D. Velky Jr2212820
LAug 5 · 05:40J. Gembala29411591D. Velky Jr3911611113
LMay 1 · 05:45J. Gembala48411131282D. Velky Jr491121510113
J. Gembala10
LSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143WSep 19 · 20:43A. Baros1.834611121J. Gembala1.8311119143LSep 19 · 20:10R. Kowal1.7314811113J. Gembala2.001211981LSep 19 · 19:10J. Gembala2.506590D. Sarganek1.501111113WSep 19 · 17:40A. Baros1.91991113152J. Gembala1.801111611173LSep 15 · 08:43J. Krupnik2.10771112113J. Gembala1.67111161072LSep 15 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5713101181J. Krupnik2.2515124113LSep 15 · 06:45J. Gembala1.57911851T. Grmela2.2511511113LSep 15 · 05:45J. Gembala1.678111171T. Krenek2.1011913113WSep 13 · 08:40J. Gembala1.6711611113J. Skalicky2.10611881
D. Velky Jr10
WSep 27 · 16:40J. Skvrna1.5761190D. Velky Jr2.251113113LSep 27 · 16:10D. Velky Jr2.201111061L. Slavik1.6111712113LSep 27 · 14:40J. Skvrna1.579111011113D. Velky Jr2.2511112572WSep 27 · 14:10F. Chaloupka1.57871161D. Velky Jr2.2511117113LSep 27 · 13:17D. Velky Jr1.73117991L. Dzida2.0091111113WSep 27 · 11:45D. Velky Jr1.83141189113L. Dzida1.83126111182LSep 27 · 10:45D. Velky Jr1.67111111852E. Precek2.10138511113WSep 27 · 09:45D. Velky Jr1.571113910113D. Pawlik2.25711111282LSep 26 · 09:14J. Travnicek1.8011119113D. Velky Jr1.91941191LSep 26 · 08:15D. Velky Jr1.915760J. Travnicek1.801111113
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