TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dalibor Velky Jr vs Dominik Pawlik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11713119111012118
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDalibor Velky Jr above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 103 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 61.6%
103 points played in total.
H2H Dalibor Velky Jr 10–9 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1606 vs Pawlik 1504
Jr
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Pawlik 20%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Pawlik 20%
Jr
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Pawlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.57 / Pawlik 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Jr)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13203156
Jr1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 26)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 68 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Pawlik2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 25)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr7wins
AwayPawlik3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%5 of 5
AwayPawlik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr6Pawlik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr6Pawlik4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr6Pawlik1n = 7Jr took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrPawlikJ − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.036.9+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 563 vs 244 / 49749.9%49.1%281 / 563 vs 244 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.57/Pawlik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 12:15D. Jr331111113D. Pawlik259790
WSep 17 · 10:10D. Jr3811511113D. Pawlik37911891
WSep 6 · 08:15D. Jr48141112113D. Pawlik341251431
LSep 2 · 08:15D. Jr30611851D. Pawlik3911611113
LAug 29 · 08:50D. Jr4294121162D. Pawlik461111103113
WAug 29 · 07:15D. Jr4681111163D. Pawlik401178141
LAug 28 · 07:45D. Jr2779110D. Pawlik351111133
WAug 21 · 10:15D. Jr341211113D. Pawlik2410680
WAug 21 · 06:15D. Jr4417115113D. Pawlik431591181
WAug 14 · 07:10D. Jr48961111113D. Pawlik4611116992
D. Jr10
LSep 26 · 09:14J. Travnicek1.8011119113D. Jr1.91941191LSep 26 · 08:15D. Jr1.915760J. Travnicek1.801111113WSep 26 · 06:45J. Skalicky1.738760D. Jr2.001111113WSep 26 · 06:15A. Veliiev2.00911771D. Jr1.7311811113WSep 24 · 09:15D. Jr2.0011116113R. Sedlacek1.73491151WSep 24 · 07:40T. Krenek1.501241191D. Jr2.50101113113WSep 24 · 07:10T. Kindl1.919880D. Jr1.801111113LSep 24 · 06:10D. Jr2.0011511652R. Sedlacek1.73611611113WSep 23 · 16:45A. Kanak1.8011641282D. Jr1.918111110113WSep 23 · 15:45D. Jr2.25571316143B. Mrowetz1.5711111114122
D. Pawlik10
LSep 25 · 08:39D. Pawlik2.00461181E. Precek1.7311118113WSep 25 · 08:10D. Pawlik2.5091111113E. Precek1.50114891LSep 25 · 06:40L. Slavik1.5361111113D. Pawlik2.38118991LSep 25 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.6111118113D. Pawlik2.20451181LSep 24 · 12:39D. Pawlik1.80811111172T. Krenek1.91111395113WSep 24 · 11:40T. Krenek1.676680D. Pawlik2.101111113LSep 24 · 11:10L. Dzida1.831111123D. Pawlik1.8348100LSep 24 · 10:10D. Pawlik1.61116191R. Sedlacek2.2051111113LSep 24 · 08:45J. Krupnik1.5010111111113D. Pawlik2.5012138882LSep 24 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.914101561I. Heuman1.80111213113
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