TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Jan Skvrna 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117911711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 11–19 Jan Skvrna Bruno Mrowetz has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1600 vs Skvrna 1650
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 20% vs Skvrna 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 30% vs Skvrna 50%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz -2 · Skvrna -3
Skvrna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.909 / Skvrna 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skvrna)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251911
Mrowetz1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 63 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Skvrna1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 231 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it75% 161 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz4wins
AwaySkvrna6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz60%3 of 5
AwaySkvrna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S2Mrowetz8Skvrna2n = 10Mrowetz took 8 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S5Mrowetz1Skvrna5n = 6Skvrna took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzSkvrnaM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.540.6+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 532 vs 497 / 86050.2%57.8%267 / 532 vs 497 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaMrowetz 1.91/Skvrna 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 11:15B. Mrowetz331111113J. Skvrna237970
LSep 10 · 11:45B. Mrowetz4411118682J. Skvrna43731111113
WSep 1 · 10:45B. Mrowetz3711114113J. Skvrna33881161
LAug 25 · 09:40B. Mrowetz50711111382J. Skvrna42113215113
LAug 13 · 19:45B. Mrowetz4915711882J. Skvrna511311511113
WAug 9 · 11:40B. Mrowetz521111109113J. Skvrna4799121162
LAug 2 · 13:18B. Mrowetz2055100J. Skvrna341111123
LAug 2 · 10:45B. Mrowetz4791111792J. Skvrna51119911113
LJul 22 · 05:40B. Mrowetz4031181172J. Skvrna47117117113
WJul 20 · 15:40B. Mrowetz43101111113J. Skvrna35128781
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 6 · 12:10T. Krenek1.736760B. Mrowetz2.001111113LOct 6 · 09:40J. Krupnik1.83771111113B. Mrowetz1.8311119962LOct 5 · 08:53T. Krenek1.40115311113B. Mrowetz2.7581111872WOct 5 · 07:45B. Mrowetz1.501111113L. Slavik2.506880LOct 5 · 06:45B. Mrowetz1.61391481R. Benes2.20111112113LOct 5 · 05:45B. Mrowetz1.91118611102T. Krenek1.80611118123WOct 4 · 12:50T. Molin2.7591611692B. Mrowetz1.401114811113LOct 4 · 11:45B. Mrowetz1.735570J. Krupnik2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:45B. Mrowetz1.61111111652J. Travnicek2.20137811113LOct 4 · 09:45B. Mrowetz1.539870T. Molin2.381111113
J. Skvrna10
WOct 6 · 11:40J. Krupnik2.20761151J. Skvrna1.6111118113LOct 6 · 10:10J. Skvrna1.73911111182T. Krenek2.00114138113LOct 5 · 12:45J. Skvrna1.8039130M. Moravec1.911111153LOct 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.80771171R. Benes1.9111118113WOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.7316611163M. Moravec2.0014119141LOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133WOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113WOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113LOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113
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