TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Michal Moravec 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
16146111191614––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:27 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Michal Moravec below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 97 set 4, 16-14 · our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.1%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 18–11 Michal Moravec Michal Moravec has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2754.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-11 in 29
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1689 vs Moravec 1601
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 60% vs Moravec 40%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 60% vs Moravec 40%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -1 · Moravec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.727 / Moravec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvrna)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246123
Skvrna1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 233 of 394
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it75% 162 of 216
Moravec2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 42 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back28% 15 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna80%4 of 5
AwayMoravec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvrna4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna4Moravec3n = 7Skvrna took 4 of 7
S5Skvrna2Moravec1n = 3Skvrna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaMoravecS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.040.1−0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 857 vs 213 / 41758%51.1%497 / 857 vs 213 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Moravec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna4916611163M. Moravec4814119141
WAug 31 · 10:10J. Skvrna4071111113M. Moravec32116871
WJul 28 · 11:40J. Skvrna531191111113M. Moravec3831151362
LJul 20 · 16:55J. Skvrna2110470M. Moravec341211113
WJul 20 · 14:10J. Skvrna5311101011113M. Moravec4451212962
LJul 14 · 13:20J. Skvrna511211511122M. Moravec57149119143
LJul 14 · 10:45J. Skvrna248880M. Moravec331111113
WJul 10 · 11:45J. Skvrna361411113M. Moravec2812790
LJul 2 · 15:40J. Skvrna35128961M. Moravec43101111113
LJun 30 · 10:40J. Skvrna381111791M. Moravec4413911113
J. Skvrna10
LOct 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.737911111T. Krenek2.0011118133WOct 3 · 13:15D. Velky Jr1.6111101291J. Skvrna2.2051214113WOct 3 · 11:45M. Macurak2.00571661J. Skvrna1.73111114113WOct 3 · 11:15D. Velky Jr2.2091171172J. Skvrna1.61119119113LOct 3 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73111121092J. Krupnik2.00961112113WOct 2 · 16:45A. Baros2.506580J. Skvrna1.461111113WOct 2 · 16:15J. Skvrna1.831211113J. Rak1.8310960LOct 2 · 14:45F. Sikora1.44125117113J. Skvrna2.63101131172LOct 2 · 14:15A. Baros1.80711711113J. Skvrna1.9111611862WSep 30 · 13:13J. Skvrna1.8081111113T. Krenek1.91117951
M. Moravec10
LOct 5 · 10:15R. Benes1.91111511113M. Moravec1.808131381LOct 3 · 17:19M. Moravec1.61911701M. Raska2.2011811113WOct 3 · 15:40M. Moravec1.80911148113R. Sedlacek1.91119121192WOct 3 · 14:40M. Moravec1.537101111113M. Raska2.3811124962LOct 3 · 13:40M. Moravec1.5791111582A. Cizek2.25117411113WOct 1 · 17:00V. Konvicka2.0011611151M. Moravec1.7391113173LOct 1 · 15:45A. Kanak2.001111911113M. Moravec1.7313711792LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091WOct 1 · 14:15M. Moravec1.6761111113L. Dzida2.10119991LSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133
Upcoming Matches
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M. Moravec
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