TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Moravec vs Lukas Dzida 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119119119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched: 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Moravec to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Moravec above · Lukas Dzida below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Michal Moravec at 58.6%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Moravec 3–0 Lukas Dzida Lukas Dzida has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1458.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Moravec
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1645 vs Dzida 1555
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 80% vs Dzida 20%
Moravec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 70% vs Dzida 30%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Dzida +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Moravec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dzida form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.666 / Dzida 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Moravec)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13226689
Moravec1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 57 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Dzida2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog56% won 38 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back37% 13 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayDzida0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMoravec leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec1Dzida2n = 3Dzida took 2 of 3
S2Moravec2Dzida1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S3Moravec3Dzida0n = 3Moravec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMoravecDzidaM − DBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.340.0+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecDzidaBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 407 vs 126 / 23351.4%54.1%209 / 407 vs 126 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.67/Dzida 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec51891112113L. Dzida47111191062
WSep 16 · 12:10M. Moravec351111133L. Dzida2999110
WAug 24 · 14:15M. Moravec47911115113L. Dzida4411861182
M. Moravec10
LOct 1 · 15:15V. Konvicka2.10111112113M. Moravec1.671391091LSep 30 · 13:08M. Moravec1.839112111R. Benes1.8311911133WSep 30 · 11:40M. Moravec2.001113113R. Benes1.7361180WSep 30 · 10:40M. Moravec1.80119116113T. Kindl1.9191171192WSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 29 · 12:49M. Moravec1.443111411153E. Precek2.63117166132WSep 29 · 11:40E. Precek2.25118411M. Moravec1.5751111113LSep 29 · 11:10A. Cizek2.5015118113M. Moravec1.501341191LSep 29 · 10:10M. Moravec1.5011119792D. Pawlik2.50881111113WSep 25 · 20:40M. Moravec1.5311101318113D. Vitasek2.381312111682
L. Dzida10
WOct 1 · 14:45A. Kanak2.0061340L. Dzida1.731115113WOct 1 · 12:34T. Kindl1.531141061L. Dzida2.3871112113LOct 1 · 12:10L. Dzida1.834890T. Kindl1.831111113LOct 1 · 10:40D. Velky Jr1.911511133L. Dzida1.80138110LOct 1 · 10:10B. Mrowetz1.831111115113L. Dzida1.8385131162LSep 30 · 12:38T. Kindl1.9161112113L. Dzida1.801181061LSep 30 · 12:10T. Kindl2.001112133L. Dzida1.73610110LSep 30 · 11:10L. Dzida2.008650R. Benes1.731111113LSep 30 · 09:40M. Moravec1.73891112113L. Dzida2.00111191062WSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132
Upcoming Matches
M. Moravec
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L. Dzida
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